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暴雨灾害  2013, Vol. 32 Issue (4): 379-384    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.03.012
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暴雨洪涝淹没模型在洪灾损失评估中的应用
史瑞琴1,刘宁2,李兰1,叶丽梅1,刘旭东3,郭广芬1
(1. 武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074;2. 湖北经济学院,武汉430074; 3. 中国地质大学,武汉430074)
Application of rainstorm and flood inundation model in flood disaster economic loss evaluation
SHI Ruiqin1, LIU Ning2, LI Lan1, YE Limei1, LIU Xudong3, GUO Guangfen1
(1.Wuhan Region Climate Center, Wuhan 430074;2.Hubei University of economics, Wuhan 430205;3.China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074)
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摘要 为了开展客观定量的暴雨洪涝灾害评估,探讨了基于暴雨洪涝淹没模型的暴雨洪涝灾害损失评估业务流程,其核心环节有两部分:估算因降水造成的淹没范围和建立适用的经济损失评估模型。其中暴雨洪涝淹没模型以最大坡降算法和曼宁公式计算暴雨洪涝汇流过程,通过给定汇流时间得到研究区域的淹没面积和水深;经济损失评估模型由直接经济损失和间接经济损失构成,直接经济损失由淹没范围内各类财产的价值乘以其相应的损失率得到。以武汉市江夏区2010 年7 月一次暴雨洪涝灾害过程为例给出了整个评估流程的实现过程,结果表明基于暴雨洪涝淹没模型的洪涝灾害损失评估业务流程物理意义清楚,表达了暴雨—径流—洪涝灾害全过程,可用以提高洪涝灾害影响评估的定量化程度,同时也为暴雨洪涝风险管理提供一定的依据。
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史瑞琴
刘宁
李兰
叶丽梅
刘旭东
郭广芬
关键词淹没模型   致灾雨量   损失评估   风险管理     
Abstract: To evaluate rainstorm and flood disaster objectively and quantitatively, in this study we discuss the operational procedure for rainstorm and flood disaster loss evaluation based on rainstorm and flood inundation model. The core components include estimating the inundated area caused by rainstorm and establishing a suitable economic loss evaluation model. Of them, the rainstorm and flood inundation model is used to calculate the rainstorm and flood confluent process based on Deterministic Eight-node and Manning formula, and obtain the inundated area and depth of research area by giving confluent time. The economic loss evaluation model is comprised of direct and indirect economic losses, and the direct economic loss is calculated by the cost of various types of property within the inundated area by the corresponding loss rate. Using the case of a rainstorm and flood disaster event of Wuhan Jiangxia in July 2010 as an example, in the paper we demonstrated the whole evaluation procedure. The results show that the operational procedure of the rainstorm and flood disaster loss evaluation based on the rainstorm and flood inundation model has a clear physical basis, which represents the whole process of rainstorm—runoff—flood disaster. Being applied to day-to-day operation of disaster impact evaluation, it can improve the degree of its quantification, and offer a reference for rainstorm and flood risk management.
Key wordsinundation model   disaster-causing rainfall   loss evaluation   risk management   
引用本文:   
史瑞琴, 刘宁, 李兰,等 .2013. 暴雨洪涝淹没模型在洪灾损失评估中的应用[J]. 暴雨灾害, 32(4): 379-384.
SHI Ruiqin, LIU Ning, LI Lan, et al .2013. Application of rainstorm and flood inundation model in flood disaster economic loss evaluation[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 32(4): 379-384.
 
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[1] 史天如, 周月华, 叶丽梅, 李兰. 2012年8月6日谷城倒塔事故与暴雨洪涝影响调查分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2021, 40(2): 182-189.
[2] 张顺谦, 王春学, 陈文秀, 邓彪. 四川省暴雨过程强度及损失评估方法研究[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2019, 38(1): 79-85.
[3] 汪涛,叶丽梅. 基于GIS淹没模型的汉北河流域暴雨洪涝淹没模拟与检验[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2018, 37(02): 158-163.
[4] 叶丽梅, 彭涛, 周月华, 高伟, 牛奔, 刘旭东. 基于GIS淹没模型的洪水演进模拟及检验[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2016, 35(3): 285-290.
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