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暴雨灾害  2016, Vol. 35 Issue (1): 25-    DOI:
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山洪灾害气象风险预警指标确定方法研究
叶金印1,2,李致家3,刘静4,杨祖祥2
(1. 淮河流域气象中心,合肥230031;2. 安徽省气象台,合肥230031; 3. 河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098;4. 安徽省蚌埠市气象局,蚌埠233040)
Identification of early meteorological risk warning indicators for flash flood disasters
YE Jinyin1,2, LI Zhijia3,LIU Jing4,YANG Zuxiang2
(1.Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center, Hefei 230031; 2. Anhui Province Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031; 3. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hehai University, Nanjing 210098; 4. Bengbu Meteorological Bureau, Bengbu 233040)
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摘要 气象风险预警指标的确定是山洪灾害气象风险预报预警业务中的关键技术问题。采用前期影响雨量表征流域前期土壤含水量饱和度,并用四分位数法划分为4 个等级;采用P-Ⅲ型频率分析法求得4 个重现期(<5、≥5、≥20、≥50a)的洪峰流量以及山洪发生前5 个时间尺度(1、3、6、12、24 h)降雨量;以洪峰流量的4 个重现期分别表征山洪灾害气象风险预警4 个等级(Ⅳ、Ⅲ、Ⅱ、Ⅰ级),基于信息扩散技术建立气象风险等级与流域前期土壤含水量饱和度、不同时间尺度降雨量的信息矩阵,即气象风险预警组合指标。利用淠河流域历史降水与流量极值资料,以及2003—2012 年17 次典型洪 水过程气象水文资料,建立5 个时间尺度的山洪灾害气象风险4 个等级预警组合指标,并利用40 组独立洪水样本,对不同时间尺度气象风险预警组合指标进行应用检验,总体预警合格率达到70%,表明该方法应用于山洪灾害气象风险预警是可行的。
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关键词山洪灾害   气象风险   预警等级   淠河流域     
Abstract: Identification of the early warning indicators of meteorological risks is a key technical issue in the forecast of flash flood disasters.The antecedent precipitation is used to characterize the degree of antecedent soil moisture saturation of a river basin, which is divided into four levels based on the quartile method. Frequency analysis based on the Pearson III distribution (P-III) model yields the estimates of the peak flow of four return periods (<5, ≥5, ≥20, and ≥50 a) and rainfall of five durations (1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24 h) before the occurrence of flash flood. The four return periods of peak flow are used to characterize the four meteorological risk levels (Ⅳ-,Ⅲ-,Ⅱ-, and ⅠLevel) of flash flood disasters. The information diffusion technique is used to establish the matrices of meteorological risk levels, antecedent soil moisture saturation degrees, and rainfall of different durations to form a combined indicator for the warning meteorological risks. Based on historical records of rainfall and extreme flow in the Pihe basin, 17 flash flood events between 2003 and 2012 are analyzed with the proposed method to derive the four-level meteorological risk warning indicators for flash flood at five time steps. The tests of the derived risk warning indicators in 40 independent historical flash flood events at different time steps have yielded a correct warning rate of over 70%, which demonstrates the feasibility of using the method for flash flood disaster warnings.
Key wordsflash flood disaster   meteorological risk   early warning level   Pihe basin   
引用本文:   
.2016. 山洪灾害气象风险预警指标确定方法研究[J]. 暴雨灾害, 35(1): 25-.
.2016. Identification of early meteorological risk warning indicators for flash flood disasters[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(1): 25-.
 
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