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暴雨灾害  2017, Vol. 36 Issue (1): 60-65    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.01.008
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暴雨诱发富水流域洪涝灾害风险研究
李兰1,彭涛2,叶丽梅1,周月华1,周黄贞3,刘敏1,柳晶辉1,梁益同1,史瑞琴1
1. 武汉区域气候中心, 武汉430074; 2. 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所, 武汉430074; 3. 宜昌市气象局, 宜昌 443000
Research on rainfall-induced flood disaster risk of Fushui river basin
LI Lan1, PENG Tao2,YE Limei1, ZHOU Yuehua1, ZHOU Huangzhen3,LIU Min1,LIU Jinghui1 LIANG Yitong1 ,SHI Ruiqin1
1. Wuhan Regional Climate Centre, Wuhan 430074; 2. Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of
Heavy Rain
, CMA, Wuhan 430074; 3. Yichang Meteorological Office of Hubei Province, Yichang 443000
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摘要 采用历史灾情分析、统计、水文模型及水动力模型等方法,分析富水流域上游历史洪水过程特点、致洪降水时程特征;以年最大致洪降水序列为基础,采用耿贝尔极值I型分布法求取上游不同重现期面雨量,运用新安江模型模拟100a一遇暴雨诱发的洪水流量线,并以此为基础,分析下游洪涝风险,模拟溃堤风险下的淹没情景。结果表明:富水上游一个洪水过程持续24~72 h,多为单峰型;暴雨诱发的洪水过程占总数77%,诱发洪水的暴雨多为区域性强降水,100 a一遇致洪暴雨过程诱发的洪水可使库水位超过历史最高水位;在设计的溃口条件下,阳新县部分村镇有淹没风险。
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作者相关文章
李兰
彭涛
叶丽梅
周月华
周黄贞
刘敏
柳晶辉
梁益同
史瑞琴
关键词暴雨诱发;   洪涝风险;   富水流域     
Abstract: Historical flood process, flood characteristics and precipitation characteristics of Fushui River reservoir upstream were analyzed by using historical disaster analysis, statistical method, and hydrological and hydrodynamic models. Based on the biggest flood-inducing precipitation sequence, different return periods of surface precipitations at upstream were obtained by using Gumbel extreme value type I distribution method. Based on the rainfall-induced flood flow line of annual frequency simulated by using Xin'anjiang model, downstream flood risk was analyzed, and the flood situation of dike-break risk was also analyzed by using hydrodynamic model. The results show that rainfall-induced flood accounted for 77% of the total process. Rainstorm process of rainfall-induced flood was mainly regional heavy rain. The flood caused by 100-year return period rainstorm process can make the water level exceed the maximum water level record. In the design of the breach, some villages and towns in Yangxin county have the risk of flooding.
Key wordsrainfall-induced;   flood risk;   Fushui river basin   
引用本文:   
李兰, 彭涛, 叶丽梅,等 .2017. 暴雨诱发富水流域洪涝灾害风险研究[J]. 暴雨灾害, 36(1): 60-65.
LI Lan, PENG Tao, YE LiMei, et al .2017. Research on rainfall-induced flood disaster risk of Fushui river basin[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 36(1): 60-65.
 
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