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暴雨灾害  2017, Vol. 36 Issue (02): 97-107    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.02.001
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中国东南地区夏季台风小时降水概率分布特征
赵琳娜1,5,白雪梅2,5,邢程3,王彬雁4,李依瞳1,5,李潇濛1,5,杨瑞雯1,5
1. 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081;2. 黑龙江省气象台,哈尔滨 150001;
3. 黑龙江省木兰县气象局,木兰 151900;4. 四川省气象台,成都 610072;5. 成都信息工程大学
大气科学学院 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,成都 610225
Probability distribution of hourly precipitation in typhoons
during summer seasons in the southeast China
ZHAO Linna1, 5, BAI Xuemei2, 5, XING Cheng3, WANG Binyan4, LI Yitong1, 5, LI Xiaomeng1, 5, Yang Ruiwen1, 5
1. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; 2. Heilongjiang Meteorological
Observatory, Harbin
150001; 3. Mulan Meteorological Station of Heilongjiang Province, Mulan 151900; 4.
Sichuan Meteorological
Observatory, Chengdu
610072; 5.
Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu
610225
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摘要 利用1980—2013年7月1日—9月30日中国东南地区818个国家地面气象站小时降水资料以及台风6 h路径观测数据分离出台风降水后,采用最大似然估计法得到台风小时降水Gamma概率密度函数分布的形状参数α和尺度参数β,并对代表站点上Gamma分布模拟的小时降水概率分布与观测的小时降水频率分布进行对比分析;最后,基于Gamma分布模拟,得到台风小时降水总的降水概率分布特征以及不同台风影响距离和台风强度影响下超过给定阈值的降水累积概率分布与极端降水阈值。结果表明: 我国东南地区台风降水总的特征是小时降水超过5 mm多发地区位于华南、华东沿海地区;其余大部分地区不易发生超过5 mm的小时降水量;广东沿海、广西南部、海南西北部,小时降水超过10 mm的累积概率为10%~15%;小时雨量超过20 mm阈值的概率极低;在近距离台风影响下,随着台风强度增大,95%累积概率小时降水阈值为15~20 mm的区域由福建和广东沿海以及海南变为湛江和海南,而阈值为10~15 mm的地区由两广浙闽地区变为广东、福建和江苏沿海以及浙江;就远距离台风而言,随着台风强度增大,东南地区出现台风降水的区域逐渐由东南沿海向内陆延伸;海南、广东、福建和江西为远距离强台风影响下95%累积概率对应的小时降水阈值较高地区。
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作者相关文章
赵琳娜
白雪梅
邢程
王彬雁
李依瞳
李潇濛
杨瑞雯
关键词台风;   小时降水;   Gamma函数;   概率分布;   东南地区     
Abstract: First, we separated the typhoon precipitation from hourly precipitation data at 818 national meteorological stations by referring the 6-hour CMA-STI tropical cyclone best-track data between 1 July and 30 September from 1980 to 2013. Secondly, we employed the maximum likelihood estimation method to obtain the shape parameter α and scale parameter β of typhoon precipitation probability density in a Gamma distribution, then performed a comparative analysis of hourly precipitation probability distribution observed and simulated by the Gamma distribution at representative stations. Lastly, based on the simulation of the Gamma distribution, we obtained the probability distribution of typhoon precipitation, and the cumulative probability distribution of precipitation exceeding given thresholds and the series thresholds of extreme typhoon precipitation under different influence distance and different intensity of typhoon. The results show that, generally, the areas of the coastal regions of south and east China have the largest probability of 5 mm threshold precipitation. The rest of the regions have a low probability of 5 mm threshold precipitation. The cumulative probability with hourly rainfall over 10 mm threshold is between 10% and 15% in the coastal region of Guangdong, south part of Guangxi and northwest part of Hainan province. The probability with hourly rainfall more than 20 mm threshold is very low in southeast China. With the increase of the intensity of the short distance typhoons, the regions where the hourly rainfall of 15 to 20 mm threshold with 95% cumulative distribution function (CDF) change from Hainan and the coastal region of Fujian and Guangdong to Zhanjiang and Hainan. The regions of hourly precipitation 10 to15 mm threshold with 95% CDF change from Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Zhejiang to Zhejiang and the coastal area of Jiangsu, Guangdong and Fujian provinces. With the increase of the intensity of the long distance typhoons, the areas affected by typhoon precipitation gradually extend from the southeast coast of China to inland, whereas the regions with higher hourly precipitation threshold with 95% CDF are Hainan, Guangdong, Fujian and Jiangxi provinces.
Key wordstyphoon;   hourly precipitation;   Gamma function;   probability distribution;   southeast China   
引用本文:   
赵琳娜, 白雪梅, 邢程,等 .2017. 中国东南地区夏季台风小时降水概率分布特征[J]. 暴雨灾害, 36(02): 97-107.
ZHAO Lin-Na, BAI Xue-Mei, XING Cheng, et al .2017. Probability distribution of hourly precipitation in typhoons
during summer seasons in the southeast China[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 36(02): 97-107.
 
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