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暴雨灾害  2018, Vol. 37 Issue (02): 124-134    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2018.02.004
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2016年华南地区一次大暴雨过程的空报原因分析
肖安,许爱华
江西省气象台,南昌 330096
Cause analysis on false prediction of an extreme heavy rain event in Southern China in 2016
XIAO An,XU Aihua
Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang 330096
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摘要 2016年4月22日06时中央气象台对中国南方地区发布24 h大暴雨、暴雨预报,但实况却以小雨天气为主。本文利用常规探空和地面观测站资料、ERA-Interim再分析资料和ECMWF预报资料,对这次个例空报的原因进行了探讨,同时用同一地区另一出现了暴雨的个例作对比分析。结果表明: 高空低槽东移加深,槽前西南急流发展是我国南方暴雨常见的一种天气形势,但22日08时—23日08时西南急流中低层存在辐散,且比湿值小、湿度层浅薄,没有上下一致的上升运动,水汽通量辐合高度偏低,动力和水汽条件均不利于出现较强降水;21日20时—22日08时华南地区出现一次短历时强对流天气后,K指数、对流有效位能(CAPE)和Si指数持续偏低,假相当位温(θse)等值线密集区(锋区)偏北,不稳定能量弱,能量条件不利于继续出现较强降水。数值模式对这次过程存在较大预报误差,但700 hPa以上较低相对湿度不利于出现大暴雨天气,一定程度上能对降水落区进行订正。分析对照个例表明,如果中低层存在弱辐散场,但水汽条件较好,也能出现较强降水;因此,从华南槽前类暖区暴雨环境场看,中低层较高比湿(高于平均值2~3 g·kg-1)、较好的边界层触发条件、较深厚的上升气流与更强对流不稳定都可能是我国南方春季暖区暴雨重要的预报思路。
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肖安
许爱华
关键词暖区暴雨;   空报;   西南急流;   水汽条件     
Abstract: The 24 h extreme heavy rain or heavy rain event forecast over Southern China was issued by National Meteorological Centre at 06:00 BT on 22 April 2016. But the corresponding observations show that the accumulated precipitation only reached light rain grade. Using the routine sounding and surface observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis data and ECMWF forecast products, we investigated the cause of the false prediction of this event, and compared it with another heavy rain event occurred in same area. The results indicate that with respect to the common synoptic pattern characterized by the high-altitude trough moving eastward and the developing of the southwest jet at front of the trough when Southern China experiences heavy rain, there were some dynamic and moisture conditions that is not conducive to the occurrence of heavy rainfall from 08:00 BT 22 to 08:00 BT 23 April 2016, including weak divergence in the low-level, low specific humidity, shallow wet layer, lack of consistent ascending motion throughout up and down levels, and low height of water vapor flux convergence. After a short-period severe convective weather event in Southern China from 20:00 BT 21 to 08:00 BT 22 April 2016, energy conditions such as low K-exponent, convective available potential energy (CAPE) and Si index, and northerly concentrated θse (pseudo-equivalent potential temperature) isoline  area and weak convective instability all are not conducive to the occurrence of heavy rainfall. Compared to observation, the forecast from the numerical models to this event showed a large error. Especially, the low relative humidity above 700 hPa is not conducive to the occurrence of extreme heavy rain, but the precipitation area can be to some extent revised by it. Analysis of comparison event shows that if weak divergence appears in the mid- and low-level, strong precipitation can also occur so long as the moisture condition is good enough. Therefore, environment conditions, such as specific humidity of 2-3 g·kg-1 more than the mean in the mid- and low-level, reasonable triggering conditions in boundary layer, deeper updraft and strong convective instability, all should be considered when forcasting heavy rain in the warm sector in spring in Southern China.
Key wordsheavy rain in the warm sector;   false forecast;   southwest jet;   water vapor condition   
引用本文:   
肖安, 许爱华 .2018. 2016年华南地区一次大暴雨过程的空报原因分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 37(02): 124-134.
XIAO An, XU Ai-Hua .2018. Cause analysis on false prediction of an extreme heavy rain event in Southern China in 2016[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 37(02): 124-134.
 
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