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暴雨灾害  2020, Vol. 39 Issue (1): 71-80    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.01.008
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近25 a重庆地区小时降水时空分布特征分析
杨春1, 张勇1, 张亚萍1, 余君2, 吴胜刚1, 李强1
1. 重庆市气象台, 重庆 401147;
2. 重庆市气象信息与技术保障中心, 重庆 401147
Analysis on the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of hourly precipitation in Chongqing during recent 25 years
YANG Chun1, ZHANG Yong1, ZHANG Yaping1, YU Jun2, WU Shenggang1, LI Qiang1
1. Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, Chongqing 401147;
2. Chongqing Meteorological Information Center, Chongqing 401147
 全文: PDF (6305 KB)   HTML ( 输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      背景资料
摘要 利用重庆34个自动站1991-2015年逐小时降水资料,分别从降水比率、强降水占比、强降水频次、强降水事件、极大强降水及极端强降水阈值等方面分析了重庆时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)降水比率、强降水占比、强降水频次、强降水事件、极大强降水及极端强降水阈值在空间分布上具有一致性,高值区主要分布在东南部与西部,低值区主要位于东北部与中部。(2)降水比率、强降水占比、强降水频次及极大强降水在年变化上表现出波动起伏特征,且降水比率相对变化幅度较小,后三者表现出同相位的变化特点。在月变化上,降水比率呈双峰特征,后三者一致呈单峰特征。在日变化上,强降水高频次主要出现在03-05时,低频次主要是13-15时。(3)在强降水事件持续性上,强降水事件持续时间及其降水开始至最强降水时间的空间分布一致:高值区主要集中在东北部与东南部,而低值区主要分布在中部与西部。总体上看,持续时间越长,产生最强降水的时间越延后,且持续时间长的强降水事件主要产生在23时至次日04时。(4)第99、99.5、99.9百分位阈值与广义极值(GEV)分布函数5、10、20、50、100 a重现期阈值及极大强降水观测值在空间分布上与强降水具有一致性。
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杨春
张勇
张亚萍
余君
吴胜刚
李强
关键词小时降水   强降水事件   百分位法   广义极值分布函数   时空分布特征     
Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation data from 34 automatic stations in Chongqing from 1991 to 2015, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics have been analyzed from the aspects of precipitation ratio, percentage of heavy precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation, heavy precipitation event, maximum heavy precipitation and threshold of extreme heavy precipitation. The results are as follows. (1) The spatial distribution of precipitation ratio, percentage of heavy precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation, heavy precipitation events, maximum heavy precipitation and threshold of extreme heavy precipitation are consistent with each other. The high value areas are mainly distributed in the southeast and west, while the low value areas are mainly located in the northeast and central areas. (2) The annual changes of precipitation ratio, percentage of heavy precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation and maximum precipitation have shown fluctuations, while the change in precipitation rate is relatively small, and the latter three show the change characteristic of the same phase. On the monthly changes, the precipitation ratio is characterized by a "double peak", while the latter three are consistently characterized by a "single peak". In terms of daily changes, the high frequency of heavy precipitation mainly occurs from 03:00 BT to 05:00 BT in the morning, while the low frequency times are mainly from 13:00 BT to 15:00 BT in the afternoon. (3) In the continuity of heavy rainfall events, the duration of heavy precipitation events is consistent with the spatial distribution of the time from the beginning of precipitation to the time of the heaviest precipitation. The high value areas are mainly concentrated in the northeast and southeast, while the low value areas are mainly distributed in the central and western areas. In general, the longer the duration, the more delayed the time to produce the strongest precipitation, and the long-lasting heavy precipitation event occurred mainly at 23:00 p.m. to 04:00 a.m. in the next day. (4) The 99th, 99.5th, 99.9th percentile thresholds and 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100-year return period thresholds of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution functions and the maximum observed values are all consistent with heavy precipitation in spatial distribution.
Key wordshourly precipitation   heavy precipitation event   percentile method   generalized extreme value distribution function   temporal and spatial distribution characteristics   
收稿日期: 2018-01-03;
基金资助:重庆市气象局青年基金项目(QNJJ-201401);重庆市科学技术委员会技术创新与应用示范项目(社会民生类cstc2018jscx-msybX0019)
通讯作者: 张勇,男,主要从事天气预报工作及资料应用研究。E-mail:zangy110@126.com   
作者简介: 杨春,男,主要从事天气预报及技术研发。E-mail:415727923@qq.com
引用本文:   
杨春, 张勇, 张亚萍,等 .2020. 近25 a重庆地区小时降水时空分布特征分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 39(1): 71-80.
YANG Chun, ZHANG Yong, ZHANG Yaping, et al .2020. Analysis on the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of hourly precipitation in Chongqing during recent 25 years[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(1): 71-80.
 
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