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暴雨灾害  2020, Vol. 39 Issue (6): 549-554    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.06.001
“2020年梅汛期降水研究”专刊 最新目录 | 下期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索  |   
2020年长江中下游梅汛期降水异常特征及其成因分析
王永光1, 娄德君3, 刘芸芸1,2
1. 国家气候中心 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081;
2. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044;
3. 黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市气象局, 齐齐哈尔 161006
Characteristics and causes analysis of abnormal Meiyu rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley in 2020
WANG Yongguang1, LOU Dejun3, LIU Yunyun1,2
1. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;
2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;
3. Qiqihar Meteorological Bureau, Heilongjiang Province, Qiqihar 161006
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摘要 利用1961—2020年长江中下游梅汛期降雨量资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和NOAA海表温度等资料,对2020年长江中下游梅汛期雨量异常偏多的环流异常特征和前期异常信号进行了分析。结果表明:2020年长江中下游地区入梅早、出梅晚,梅雨季长达52 d,梅雨季雨量为753.9 mm,较常年偏多1.5倍,为1961年以来历史最多。6—7月欧亚中高纬呈“两槽两脊”型,30°—50°N之间的冷空气活动频繁,东亚夏季风异常偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)异常偏强偏西,引导来自南海和西北太平洋的转向水汽沿副高外围向长江流域输送,造成长江中下游地区降水异常偏多。前冬印度洋关键区海温持续偏暖、副高偏强偏西、东亚夏季风异常偏弱,是长江中下游梅汛期雨量异常偏多的重要影响因子。
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王永光
娄德君
刘芸芸
关键词长江中下游   梅雨   东亚夏季风   副高   印度洋海温     
Abstract: Based on rainfall data during Meiyu season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and NOAA sea surface temperature dataset from 1961 to 2020, the circulation anomaly characteristics and precursor influence signals of the abnormally excessive rainfall during the Meiyu season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 2020 are analyzed. Results show that in 2020 the Meiyu season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River started earlier and ended later, with the rainy season lasted for 52 days. The rainfall during the rainy season is 753.9 mm, which is 1.5 times more than normal, and the largest in history since 1961. From June to July, the Eurasian mid-high latitudes showed a "two troughs and two ridges" pattern. Cold air activities in mid-latitudes between 30-50°N are frequent, the East Asian summer monsoon is abnormally weak, and the West Pacific subtropical high is abnormally strong and westward, which leads the water vapor from the South China Sea and the diverted water vapor from the Northwest Pacific to transport along the periphery of the subtropical high to the Yangtze River basin, resulting in abnormally high precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The warmer SST in key areas of the Indian Ocean and the central Pacific El Niño in the previous winter play an important role in the strong and western Pacific subtropical high and the abnormally weak East Asian summer monsoon. They are the important influencing factors for the abnormally high rainfall during the Meiyu season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
Key wordsthe middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River   Meiyu   east Asian summer monsoon   western pacific subtropical high   SST of the Indian ocean   
收稿日期: 2020-10-30;
基金资助:国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0603701);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-164);2021年中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z033)
作者简介: 王永光,主要从事短期气候预测研究。E-mail:ygwang@cma.gov.cn
引用本文:   
王永光, 娄德君, 刘芸芸 .2020. 2020年长江中下游梅汛期降水异常特征及其成因分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 39(6): 549-554.
WANG Yongguang, LOU Dejun, LIU Yunyun .2020. Characteristics and causes analysis of abnormal Meiyu rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley in 2020[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(6): 549-554.
 
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