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暴雨灾害
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暴雨灾害  2021, Vol. 40 Issue (2): 174-181    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.02.009
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安徽省暴雨灾害预警等级的划分及其应用
陶玮1, 郭婷2, 吴瑞姣1, 周昆1, 邱学兴1
1. 安徽省气象台, 合肥 230031;
2. 安徽省蚌埠市气象局, 蚌埠 233000
Classification of early warning levels for rainstorm disaster and its application in Anhui Province
TAO Wei1, GUO Ting2, WU Ruijiao1, ZHOU Kun1, QIU Xuexing1
1. Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031;
2. Bengbu Meteorological Office of Anhui Province, Bengbu 233000
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摘要 利用安徽省1961—2016年81个国家级地面气象观测站雨量、2006—2016年1 162个地面自动观测站小时雨量、1961—2016年安徽省民政厅灾情和2006—2016年《安徽省气象灾害年鉴》收录的227个暴雨过程灾情数据,采取气候平均、广义极值、概率密度函数、百分位分布等方法,统计暴雨过程的持续天数、区域、范围、平均日降水量和小时雨量对暴雨灾害的影响,划分安徽省暴雨灾害预警等级。结果表明:(1)安徽省暴雨灾害预警等级可分为Ⅳ级(轻度)、Ⅲ级(中度)、Ⅱ级(重度)、Ⅰ级(特重)四个等级;(2)从Ⅳ级到Ⅰ级,暴雨过程的持续天数指标从1—4 d,范围指标根据暴雨区占区域总面积的百分比确定,从Ⅳ级的20%上升至Ⅰ级的80%;(3)根据暴雨过程的区域差异,将安徽分为沿淮淮北、大别山区及皖南山区、沿江及江淮之间三个区域,分别建立降水量与暴雨灾情的定量关系,并在每个区域设置相应的平均日降水量和小时雨量指标;(4)利用上述暴雨灾害预警等级,对1981—2018年安徽省致灾的149个暴雨过程进行回代检验,并将其用于2020年6—7月安徽省暴雨灾害预警,暴雨灾害预警发布周期为Ⅳ级(轻度)0.66~0.82 a、Ⅲ级(中度)1.15~1.90 a、Ⅱ级(重度)3.16~3.80 a、Ⅰ级(特重)9.5~12.6 a,符合安徽暴雨灾情实际,可以为气象部门启动暴雨应急响应提供参考。
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陶玮
郭婷
吴瑞姣
周昆
邱学兴
关键词暴雨灾害   预警等级   地方标准   应急响应     
Abstract: Based on the rainfall data at the81 national surface meteorological observation stations from 1961 to 2016 and the hourly rainfall data at the 1162 surface automatic weather stations over Anhui Province from 2006 to 2016, the casualty loss data from Anhui Civil Department from 1961 to 2016, and the disaster condition for the 227 rainstorm events collected in Anhui meteorological disaster Yearbook from 2006 to 2016, we have conducted a statistical analysis of the effect of the duration, region, area range, and daily and hourly rainfall for the rainstorm events on disaster loss by using several methods including climate average, generalized extreme, probability density function and percentile distribution, then accordingly classified the rainstorm disaster warning grades in Anhui Province. The main results are as follow. (1) The early warning of rainstorm disaster in Anhui can be divided into four levels, i.e., IV (mild), III (moderate), II (severe) and I (extra heavy). (2) From levels IV to I, the duration of rainstorm events ranges from 1 to 4 days, and their range is determined by the percentage of rainstorm area in total area of a region, increasing from 20% in level IV to 80% in levelⅠ. (3) According to the regional difference of rainstorm events, Anhui can be divided into the three areas, i.e., the northern Anhui along Huaihe River (I), the Dabie Mountains and southern Anhui mountain regions (II) and the region between Yangtze River and Huaihe River (Ⅲ). Then the quantitative relationship between the precipitation and the rainstorm disaster situation is established, and the corresponding daily and hourly rainfall indices are set up in each region. (4) Based on the above-mentioned early warning levels for rainstorm disaster, the149 rainstorm events causing disasters in Anhui from 1981 to 2018is constructed and tested, which is used in the early warning of rainstorm disaster from June to July in 2020. The results indicate that the release period of rainstorm disaster warning is around 0.66-0.82 years for level IV (mild),15-1.90 years for level III (moderate), 3.16-3.80 years for level II (severe), and 9.5-12.6 years for level I (extra heavy), which is consistent with the actual rainstorm disaster in Anhui and can provide a reference for the meteorological department to start the emergency response of rainstorm.
Key wordsrainstorm disaster   warning levels   local standard   emergency response   
收稿日期: 2020-07-21;
基金资助:中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-055);安徽省气象台自立科研项目(AHMO202006)
通讯作者: 周昆,主要从事短时及中短期天气预报技术研究。E-mail:old_chen@sohu.com   
作者简介: 陶玮,主要从事数值模式产品释用研究。E-mail:taoweijanet@163.com
引用本文:   
陶玮, 郭婷, 吴瑞姣,等 .2021. 安徽省暴雨灾害预警等级的划分及其应用[J]. 暴雨灾害, 40(2): 174-181.
TAO Wei, GUO Ting, WU Ruijiao, et al .2021. Classification of early warning levels for rainstorm disaster and its application in Anhui Province[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 40(2): 174-181.
 
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