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暴雨灾害  2021, Vol. 40 Issue (4): 383-392    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.04.006
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贵州省短时强降水时空分布特征分析
肖蕾1, 杜小玲2, 武正敏1, 郭晓超3, 田端1, 刘红双1
1. 贵州省遵义市气象局, 遵义 563000;
2. 贵州省气象台, 贵阳 550000;
3. 贵州省遵义市播州区气象局, 遵义 563100
Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall in Guizhou Province
XIAO Lei1, DU Xiaoling2, WU Zhengmin1, GUO Xiaochao3, TIAN Duan1, LIU Hongshuang1
1. Zunyi Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Zunyi 563000;
2. Guizhou meteorological station, Guiyang 550000;
3. Bozhou District Meteorological Bureau of Zunyi of Guizhou Province, Zunyi 563100
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摘要 利用2005—2018年贵州省84个国家气象站逐小时降水量资料,采用统计诊断分析方法,在区分量级前提下,结合地形特征,分析贵州1 h短时强降水和逐3 h降水的时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)14 a中短时强降水共出现5 981站次,年均427.2站次,其空间分布与地形特征密切相关,整体呈现南多北少、东多西少的特征,贵州西南部“喇叭口”地形和东南部雷公山南侧“喇叭口”地形与河谷地形重叠区域为短时强降水高发区。短时强降水分级统计显示,99%的短时强降水集中在前两个雨强较小的等级,而R1h≥80 mm的短时强降水14 a只出现过5站次。各站点最大雨强空间分布与短时强降水的总站次数分布趋势较为一致,一般南部大于北部、中东部大于西部,局部存在差异。平均雨强整体呈现南强北弱的特征。(2)在2005—2013年期间,短时强降水站次数大多处于年均值(427.2站次)之下,2011年达到最低值275站次,2014年站次数骤然增加至564站次,2015年继续增加到最大值662站次,其后迅速回落到比年均值略高的位置小幅变化。各站点短时强降水的年际变化在高发区离散度较大,在贵州西北部低发区离散度较小;月际变化曲线呈单峰型,5—8月份是降水高发时段,6月达到峰值。短时强降水主要以单站出现的局地性降水为主,同一时次出现3站以上的情况很少,以6月最多;短时强降水最早出现旬数呈东早西晚、南早北晚的特征,结束旬数西早东晚,北早南晚;各站点短时强降水出现概率最大旬多数集中在第16—18旬(即6月);短时强降水日变化的时间曲线呈单峰型,21时至次日07时为高发时段,中午12时前后出现较少。短时强降水日变化的空间分布特征为傍晚到前半夜主要集中在贵州西部,而后半夜多出现在东部和南部地区,中午前后全省均较少出现。(3)逐3 h降水时空分布特征与R1h大体一致,局部存在一些差异。
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肖蕾
杜小玲
武正敏
郭晓超
田端
刘红双
关键词短时强降水   时空分布   分级统计   贵州     
Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation data at 84 national meteorological stations in Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2018, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of 1-hour short-time heavy precipitation and 3-hour precipitation in Guizhou Province are analyzed by using the statistical diagnostic analysis method combined with considering the topographic characteristics and distinguishing the precipitation magnitude. The results show that:(1) There are 5981 short-time heavy rainfall events in 14 years, with an average of 427.2 events per year. Its spatial distribution is closely related to the terrain characteristics, which is more evident in the south than in the north, more evident in the east than in the west. The"bell mouth"terrain in southwestern Guizhou and the overlap area of the"bell mouth"terrain on the south side of Leigong Mountain in the southeast and the valley terrain are areas with high incidence of short-time heavy rainfall. According to the classification statistics of short-time heavy rainfall, 99% of the short-time heavy rainfall was concentrated in the first two grades with lower rainfall intensity, while the short-time heavy rainfall with R1H ≥ 80 mm occurred only 5 times in the 14 years. The spatial distribution trend of the maximum rainfall intensity at each station is consistent with that of the total number of short-time heavy rainfall events, which is generally greater in the south than in the north, and greater in the middle and east than in the west. The average rainfall intensity is strong in the south and weak in the north. (2) The annual variation curve shows that during the period of 2005-2013, the number of short-time heavy precipitation events is mostly below the average annual value (427.2), reaching the lowest value of 275 in 2011. The number of short-time heavy precipitation events suddenly increased to 564 in 2014, continued to increase to the maximum value of 662 in 2015, and then quickly fell back to a slightly higher value than the annual average. The interannual variation of short-time heavy rainfall at each station has a large dispersion in the high incidence area and a small dispersion in the low incidence area of northwest Guizhou. The monthly variation curve is single peak type, with high incidence period from May to August and peak value in June. The short-time heavy rainfall is mainly local precipitation at a single station, and there are a few cases with more than three stations occurring at the same time mostly in June. The first ten days of short-time heavy precipitation appear early in the east, late in the west, early in the south, and late in the north. The last ten days are early in the west and late in the east, and early in the north and late in the south. The largest occurrence probability of short-time heavy rainfall in each station is concentrated in the 16th to 18th ten days (i.e. June). The diurnal variation of short-time heavy precipitation showed a single peak type, with a high incidence from 21:00 to 07:00 the next day, and low incidence around 12:00 pm. The spatial distribution characteristics of the diurnal variation of short-term heavy precipitation are mainly concentrated in the western part of Guizhou in the evening to the first half of the night, and mostly in the eastern and southern regions of the later half of the night, and less frequently in the whole province around noon. (3) The spatial and temporal distribution of 3-hourly precipitation is similar to that in R1H, but there are some differences in some parts.
Key wordsshort-time heavy rainfall   temporal and spatial distribution   hierarchical statistics   Guizhou   
收稿日期: 2019-10-25;
基金资助:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507200)”;中国气象局暴雨创新团队(CMACXTD002-3);贵州省气象局科研项目(黔气科登[2019]10-02号);遵义市气象局科研项目(zyqxky[2018]09号);遵义市暴雨预报研究团队
通讯作者: 杜小玲,主要从事短期预报和研究。E-mail:dxl_jingjing@163.com   
作者简介: 肖蕾,主要从事中短期天气预报、气候预测及其相关研究。E-mail:414919975@qq.com
引用本文:   
肖蕾, 杜小玲, 武正敏,等 .2021. 贵州省短时强降水时空分布特征分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 40(4): 383-392.
XIAO Lei, DU Xiaoling, WU Zhengmin, et al .2021. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall in Guizhou Province[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 40(4): 383-392.
 
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