[an error occurred while processing this directive]
暴雨灾害
       首页|  期刊介绍|  编 委 会|  征稿简则|  期刊订阅|  下载中心|  编辑部公告|  联系我们


暴雨灾害  2021, Vol. 40 Issue (5): 494-504    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.05.006
论文 最新目录 | 下期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索  |   
沙颍河流域一次短时极端强降水预报失误剖析
胡燕平, 单铁良, 顾佳佳
河南省漯河市气象局, 漯河 462300
Analysis of forecast error for a short-term extreme precipitation event in the Shaying River Basin
HU Yanping, SHAN Tieliang, GU Jiajia
Luohe Meteorological Office of Henan Province, Luohe 462300
 全文: PDF (11069 KB)   HTML ( 输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      背景资料
摘要 利用常规气象资料、自动站加密观测资料、卫星云图和雷达资料、NCEP再分析资料、细网格模式资料以及区域中尺度模式,对2017年8月18日夜间沙颍河流域一次短时极端强降水过程的漏报原因和可预报性进行了探讨。结果表明:此次过程发生在西低东高的环流背景下,低层和边界层切变线稳定维持、超低空西南急流建立为强降水过程提供了水汽输送和辐合抬升条件;弱冷空气沿华北南部扩散南下逐渐侵入倒槽,在沙颍河流域形成中尺度辐合线(辐合中心)且长时间维持,触发不稳定能量释放,对暴雨有一定的可预报性。两个中尺度对流云团加强、合并发展为β中尺度对流系统,呈准静止状态,在沙颍河流域下游维持长达6 h是降水增强的直接原因。冷池及其前侧地面中尺度辐合线触发中尺度对流系统,强回波不断在中尺度冷池前侧温度梯度高值带中发展并维持,造成短时极端强降水。本次过程动力条件较弱,水汽主要集中在边界层,热力不稳定条件极为有利,但数值模式对此类对流性暴雨的捕捉能力有限,是暴雨漏报的原因。数值模式和业务预报对降水强度及极端性估计不足,以及预报员缺乏极端天气预报经验,也是造成这次过程预报失误的原因之一。
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入我的书架
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
作者相关文章
胡燕平
单铁良
顾佳佳
关键词短时极端强降水   低层切变线   对流不稳定   中尺度对流系统     
Abstract: Using routine meteorological observations, intensive observations from the automatic weather stations, satellite images, radar products, NCEP reanalysis data, fine grid model data and regional mesoscale model data, we have conducted an examination on the reasons for the miss of forecast and the predictability of a short-term extreme precipitation event occurred in the Shaying River Basin at the night on 18 August 2017. The results indicate that this event occurs under the circulation of a high in the west and a low in the east. The stability and continuance of shear lines in the low-level and boundary layer and the establishment of the ultra-low level southwest jet provide the water vapor transport and convergence conditions for the occurrence of severe precipitation. The weak cold air spreads southwards along the south of North China and gradually intrudes into the inverted trough forming a mesoscale convergence line (convergence center) in the Shaying River Basin and maintaining such condition for a long time to trigger the release of unstable energy, which is a good indicator in predicting the occurrence of rainstorm. The two mesoscale convective cloud clusters reinforced and developed jointly into a Meso-β scale Convective System (MβCS) with a quasistatic state. It maintains for 6 hours in the lower reaches of the Shaying River Basin, which is the direct reason that leads to the enhancement of precipitation. The mesoscale convective system is triggered by the cold pool and its front surface mesoscale convergence line, and the strong echo continuously develops and maintains in the high value zone of temperature gradient in front of the cold pool, resulting in short-term extreme precipitation. The weak dynamic condition, the water vapor being mainly concentrated in the boundary layer and the extremely favorable thermal instability condition during this event, as well as the limited capture ability of the numerical model in forecasting this kind of convective rainstorm, all these factors are the causes of the miss of forecast of the rainstorm. The insufficient estimation of numerical models and operational forecasts in the precipitation intensity and its extreme, and the lack of forecasters’experience in forecasting extreme weather, are also some of the reasons for the forecast errors.
Key wordsshort-term extreme precipitation   low-level shear line   convective instability   mesoscale convective system   
收稿日期: 2020-12-07;
基金资助:河南省气象局重点项目(Z201601);河南省气象局预报员专项(Z201842);河南省漯河市沙颍河流域创新团队
通讯作者: 单铁良,主要从事短期天气预报及气候预测工作。E-mail:937959956@qq.com   
作者简介: 胡燕平,主要从事短期天气预报和沙颍河流域暴雨预报研究。E-mail:407830800@qq.com
引用本文:   
胡燕平, 单铁良, 顾佳佳 .2021. 沙颍河流域一次短时极端强降水预报失误剖析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 40(5): 494-504.
HU Yanping, SHAN Tieliang, GU Jiajia .2021. Analysis of forecast error for a short-term extreme precipitation event in the Shaying River Basin[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 40(5): 494-504.
 
没有本文参考文献
[1] 杨晓亮, 杨敏, 段宇辉, 朱刚, 孙云. 京津冀一次暖区大暴雨的成因分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2021, 40(5): 455-465.
[2] 聂云, 周继先, 杨帆, 杨群, 杜小玲. 梵净山东南侧夏季暖区暴雨中尺度系统演变与环境场特征个例分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2021, 40(2): 125-135.
[3] 张夕迪, 沈文强, 杨舒楠, 张恒德, 韩冰. 2020年7月4—10日长江流域极端强降雨过程MCS活动特征分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2020, 39(6): 593-602.
[4] 翟丹华, 张亚萍, 朱岩, 黎中菊, 邱鹏, 黎春蕾. 綦江流域一次破记录洪水过程的水文与雷达回波特征分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2020, 39(6): 603-610.
[5] 周仲岛. 近30 a台湾非台风暴雨研究回顾[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2020, 39(2): 109-116.
[6] 曾勇, 杨莲梅. 新疆西部“6.16”强降水过程的中尺度分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2020, 39(1): 41-51.
[7] 余蓉, 杜牧云, 顾永刚. 锋面短时强降水系统发展模态的环境因子浅析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2019, 38(6): 640-648.
[8] 谌芸, 陈涛, 汪玲瑶, 李晟祺, 徐珺. 中国暖区暴雨的研究进展[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2019, 38(5): 483-493.
[9] 任丽, 孙磊, 张桂华, 白雪梅, 张天华. 一次东北暖锋锋生暴雨的中尺度特征分析及成因初探[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2019, 38(4): 311-319.
[10] 姚晨, 娄珊珊, 叶金印. 冷空气影响台风暴雨的中尺度分析及数值模拟[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2019, 38(3): 204-211.
[11] 刘晓波, 储海. 双台风形势下长三角地区一次大暴雨过程的成因分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2019, 38(2): 97-106.
[12] 付炜, 叶成志, 王东海, 唐明晖, 陈红专. 一次南岭山脉前汛期强对流天气过程诊断分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2018, 37(6): 511-521.
[13] 聂云, 周继先, 顾欣, 周艳, 杜小玲. “6.18”梅雨锋西段黔东南大暴雨个例诊断分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2018, 37(5): 445-454.
[14] 徐明,黄治勇,高琦. 2016年5月20日广东信宜特大暴雨中尺度对流系统特征分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2018, 37(01): 32-40.
[15] 马月枝,张霞,胡燕平. 2016年7月9日新乡暖区特大暴雨成因分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2017, 36(6): 557-565.
版权所有 © 2011《暴雨灾害》编辑部    鄂ICP备06018784号-3
地址: 湖北省武汉市东湖高新技术开发区金融港二路《暴雨灾害》编辑部
 邮编: 430205 Tel: 027-81804935   E-mail: byzh7939@163.com
技术支持: 北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司