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1961—2022年三江源地区降水时空变化特征及成因初探

Characteristics and causes of precipitation in the Three River Headwaters Region from 1961 to 2022

  • 摘要: 三江源地区(Three River Headwaters Region,TRHR)是中国生态系统最为敏感和脆弱的地区,其降水影响着本区及下游地区水资源安全、生态系统可持续发展。基于1961—2022年TRHR 22个国家气象观测站逐日降水资料,采用MK检验、距平分析、趋势分析等方法,分析了该地区62 a以来降水时空变化特征,并初步探究其成因。结果表明:(1) TRHR降水空间差异明显,呈现出自西北向东南递增的分布特征,与地形自西向东递减走势特征一致。(2) 近62 a来TRHR年平均降水量整体呈显著增加趋势,1990年前后发生突变,1990年以后降水量增加趋势更为显著,春、夏、秋三季增加明显,冬季呈减少趋势;强降水日和降水强度明显增多,特别是1990年以后增加趋势更为明显。(3) 1990年以后降水增加趋势以东部和南部增加为主,澜沧江和黄河源区部分站点增加趋势较长江源区更为显著,且夏季增加趋势明显,特别是黄河源区东部增加较多,冬季则略有减少。(4) 500 hPa蒙古高压增强、西西伯利亚冷空气增强、700 hPa西风减弱、东风增强、垂直上升运动增强、TRHR水汽通量辐合增强。动力和水汽条件同时增强是1990年以后降水增加的可能原因。

     

    Abstract: The Three River Headwaters Region (TRHR) is the most sensitive and fragile area of China's ecosystem. Its precipitation is a key factor affecting water resource security and sustainable development of the ecosystem in this and downstream areas. Using daily precipitation data from 22 national stations in TRHR from 1961 to 2022, the spatiotemporal characteristics and trend changes of precipitation in the region over the past 62 years were analyzed using methods such as MK test, cumulative anomaly analysis, and trend analysis,and its causes were preliminarily explored. The results are as follows. (1) The TRHR precipitation showed significant regional differences, with a spatial pattern of increasing from northwest to southeast, consistent with the decreasing trend of terrain from west to east. (2) The average annual precipitation of the TRHR showed a significant increase trend over the past 62 years, with a turning point around 1990. After 1990, the increase trend of the average annual precipitation had become more significant, with a significant increase in spring, summer, and autumn, and a decreasing trend in winter. The number of heavy rainfall days and precipitation intensity had significantly increased, especially since 1990. (3) The increasing trend of precipitation was mainly in the eastern and southern regions, with some stations in the Lancang River source area and the Yellow River source area showing a longer increase trend. The increase trend was more significant in the river source area in summer, especially in the eastern part of the Yellow River source area where there was a greater increase and a slight decrease in winter. (4) After 1990, The Mongolian high pressure at 500 hPa was enhanced, and the cold air in West Siberia was enhanced. The westerly wind was weakened at 700 hPa, with the easterly wind strengthened. The vertical upward movement was enhanced, and the convergence of the TRHR water vapor flux was enhanced. The simultaneous enhancement of power and water vapor conditions was a possible reason for the increase in precipitation after 1990.

     

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