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中国南方极端降水的不同变化特征研究

Different characteristics of extreme precipitation in southern China

  • 摘要: 利用国家气象科学数据中心的中国南方七省1961—2020年206个气象观测站点的逐日降水资料,采用百分位法提取20时—08时(北京时,下同;夜间)、08时—20时(白昼)、20时—20时(全天)三个时段的95%分位极端降水,分析了60 a中国南方极端降水量及其频次、极端降水最早开始时间、最晚结束时间的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1) 夜间、白昼及全天极端降水阈值的空间分布特征比较相似,夜间极端降水量大于白昼。(2) 中国南方极端降水量及其发生频次整体的长期变化均呈显著增加趋势。夜间、白昼极端降水量及其频次呈增加趋势的站点均超过70%;全天的极端降水量及其频次也有近80%的站点呈增加趋势。(3) 中国南方极端降水的空间分布不均匀,并有昼夜差异。南方年平均极端降水量高值区在两广的偏南地区,夜间年平均极端降水量大于白昼年平均极端降水量;年平均极端降水频次大值区分布与极端降水量明显不同,全天和白昼极端降水频次高值区大多位于南方地区的中部和东部,夜间极端降水频次高值区多位于南方的西北部。(4) 中国南方一年中极端降水从开始到结束的发生时间段有不断延长的趋势。夜间、白昼极端降水开始时间提前趋势和结束时间延后趋势的站点均超过60%;全天极端降水开始时间提前趋势和结束时间延后趋势的站点均超过67%,总体是开始时间平均每10 a提前2 d、结束时间平均每10 a延后近2 d。南方中部地区极端降水开始时间最早,广东西南部、广西和贵州西部开始时间最晚;极端降水结束时间江西北部最早,浙江东部最晚。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data from 206 meteorological observation stations in seven provinces of southern China between 1961 and 2020 provided by the National Meteorological Science Data Center, the 95th percentile extreme precipitation for three periods, 20:00 BT-08:00 BT (nighttime), 08:00 BT-20:00 BT (daytime), and 20:00 BT- 20:00 BT (all-day) was extracted by percentile method. The temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation, frequency, the earliest start time, and the latest end time over 60 years were analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) The spatial distribution characteristics for nighttime, daytime, and all-day extreme precipitation thresholds are similar, but the extreme precipitation at nighttime is larger than that at daytime. (2) For the long-term change, both the extreme precipitation and frequency in southern China are increasing significantly. More than 70% of the stations show increases in nighttime and daytime extreme precipitation and frequency, and nearly 80% of the stations show increases in all-day extreme precipitation and frequency. (3) The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in southern China exhibits nonuniform patterns and varies between day and night. The high-value areas of the annual mean extreme precipitation amount are located in the southern parts of Guangdong and Guangxi, with the annual average extreme precipitation at night being larger than that at daytime. The spatial distribution of the annual average extreme precipitation frequency is obviously different from that of extreme precipitation amount. The high-frequency areas of extreme precipitation for daytime and all-day periods are located in the central and eastern parts of southern China, while night extreme precipitation at night is mainly concentrated in the northwest of Southern China. (4) The period of extreme precipitation from beginning to end in southern China is lengthening. More than 60% of the stations show an earlier start and later end time trend for both nighttime and daytime extreme precipitation, and more than 67% of stations exhibit a similar trend for all-day extreme precipitation. Overall and on average, the start time advances by 2 days per 10 years, and the end time delays by 2 days in 10 years. The earliest onset time of extreme precipitation appears in the central part of South China, and the latest onset time occurs in the southwestern part of Guangdong and the western part of Guangxi and Guizhou. The earliest end time of extreme precipitation appears in north Jiangxi with the latest end time in east Zhejiang.

     

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