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三种云微物理参数化方案对台风期间放射性物质扩散模拟的影响

The impact of cloud microphysical parameterization schemes on the diffusion of radioactive material during typhoon conditions

  • 摘要: 快速准确地预测核电站事故发生后放射性物质在大气中的扩散规律,可为相关部门及时作出辐射防护科学决策提供重要的参考依据。以中国浙江省某核电站假想事故情况为例,采用WRF和FLEXPART-WRF模式进行虚拟模拟,探究WSM3、Thompson、CAM5.1三种云微物理参数化方案(以下简称三种方案)对台风期间放射性物质Cs-137扩散模拟的影响,并分析Cs-137浓度的输运和扩散特征。结果表明:三种方案模拟的风场和降雨与观测基本吻合,其中CAM5.1方案总体模拟效果最好。Cs-137浓度输运和扩散特征受气象场模拟结果的影响较大,不同云微物理参数化方案模拟结果存在明显差异。其中CAM5.1方案近地面浓度扩散范围最大,与降雨覆盖面最广相匹配;三种方案干沉降变化范围基本一致;Cs-137主要受湿沉降影响,三种方案最大湿沉降在模拟开始后的12 h内快速增加,随后趋于稳定,沉降峰值以Thompson方案最大,WSM3方案次之,CAM5.1方案最小。

     

    Abstract: Quickly and accurately predicting the diffusion pattern of radioactive substances in the atmosphere after a nuclear power plant accident can provide important reference for relevant departments to make timely scientific decisions on radiation protection. The research takes the hypothetical accident situation of a nuclear power plant in Zhejiang Province, China as an example, and uses WRF and FLEXPART-WRF models for virtual simulation to explore the effects of three cloud microphysical parameterization schemes (WSM3, Thompson, CAM5.1) on the diffusion simulation of radioactive substance Cs-137 during typhoons, and analyze the transport and diffusion characteristics of Cs-137 concentration.. The results are as follows. The simulated wind patterns and precipitation from all three schemes are generally consistent with the empirical observations, with the CAM5.1 scheme achieving the highest overall simulation accuracy. The transport and diffusion profiles of Cs-137 concentrations are heavily influenced by the simulated meteorological conditions, exhibiting significant variations among the different microphysics schemes. The CAM5.1 scheme, in particular, displays the broadest dispersion of near-surface concentrations, corresponding to the widest spread of rainfall. The variations in dry deposition are relatively uniform across all three schemes. Cs-137 concentrations are primarily driven by wet deposition, which peaks sharply within the initial 12 hours of the simulation and then levels off. The settlement peak is highest in the Thompson scheme, followed by the WSM3 scheme, and lowest in the CAM5.1 scheme.

     

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