Abstract:
Based on the downscaled data of 14 global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the gridded meteorological observation dataset of CN05.1, this study evaluated the simulation ability of CMIP6 models for 15 extreme climate indices over Hubei province, and projected the future trends under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results are as follows. (1) All of the models can reasonably reproduce the spatiotemporal evolution of the extreme climate indices, and the performance in simulating extreme temperature indices is better than extreme precipitation indices. The ensemble mean of multiple models is better than most of the models, and it can represent the average simulation ability of the models. (2) Models may overestimate extreme high-temperature indices, and underestimate extreme low-temperature indices and extreme precipitation indices, and the simulation bias will increase with the extreme of the indices intensifying. (3) The extreme high-temperature indices in Hubei province will increase significantly in the future, and the growth rate in central and Eastern Hubei will be higher than that in other regions. The extreme low-temperature indices will decrease considerably, especially in Western and northeastern Hubei. (4) Both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation indices are projected to increase, especially in Eastern and southern Hubei. However, the drought indices show a trend of initial decrease followed by intensification, with notably extreme drought indices in Northwest Hubei during the late 21st century (2081-2100). (5) In most regions, the -growth rate of extreme high-temperature indices, extreme precipitation indices, and drought indices will reach their maximum in the late 21st century. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, both the area of high value and the magnitude of increase are greater than those under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.