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基于层次聚类算法模型的环渤海地区北上台风特征分析

The Characteristics analysis of northward typhoons in the Bohai Rim region based on the hierarchical clustering method model

  • 摘要: 利用1961—2023年6—9月台风最佳路径数据集和国家级气象观测站逐日降水资料,按照地理边界构建环渤海地区台风活动路径数据集,分析影响环渤海地区的北上台风总体特征及变化规律,并基于层次聚类算法构建台风活动路径分类模型TPCAB,对北上台风活动路径及其影响范围开展精细化研究。结果表明:(1) 平均每年有1~2个台风影响环渤海地区,其中6月最少。气候变化趋势显示,台风7月减少,8、9月增多。(2) 影响环渤海地区的北上台风可以分为转向型和直接北上型两类,转向型台风日最大降水主要集中在山东中部地区;直接北上型台风日最大降水主要集中在渤海湾北部和山东东南部等区域,其中京津冀东部地区达300 mm以上,具有较强的极端性。(3) 对比两类台风极端降水过程发现,直接北上型台风生成位置更偏北,同时水汽输送路径更加偏西、更靠近环渤海内陆地区,极端降水风险更高。上述研究结果能够更加精细化地评估环渤海地区台风影响差异,为该区域台风灾害防御提供决策支撑。

     

    Abstract: Using the best path dataset of tropical cyclones (TCs) and daily precipitation data from national meteorological observation stations from June to September between 1961-2023, this study constructed the typhoon activity path dataset for the Bohai Rim region according to the geographical boundary relationship, and analyzed the general characteristic and variation rule of northward typhoon affecting the Bohai Rim region. Based on the hierarchical clustering algorithm, a typhoon activity path classification model (TPCAB) was developed to carry out detailed research on the northward typhoon activity path and its impact areas. The results are as follows. (1) On average, 1~2 TCs affect the Bohai Rim region every year, with the fewest number in June. The climate change trend indicates a decrease in July and an increase in August and September. (2) The northward TCs affecting the Bohai Rim can be divided into two types: turning type TCs and direct northward type TCs. The maximum daily precipitation of the turning type TCs is mainly concentrated in the middle part of some areas in the Shandong Peninsula. The maximum daily precipitation of the direct northward type TCs is mainly distributed in the northern part of Bohai Bay and southeast of Shandong Province, with the eastern part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei exceeding 300 mm, showing strong extremity. (3) By comparing the extreme precipitation processes of the two types, it is found that the direct northward typhoons originate from more northerly locations, with more westward water vapor transport paths and closer to the inland areas of the Bohai Rim region, which demonstrates higher risk of extreme precipitation. These research findings enable a more refined assessment of typhoon impact variations in the Bohai Rim region, thereby providing precise decision-making support for typhoon disaster prevention in the region.

     

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