Abstract:
Using the best path dataset of tropical cyclones (TCs) and daily precipitation data from national meteorological observation stations from June to September between 1961-2023, this study constructed the typhoon activity path dataset for the Bohai Rim region according to the geographical boundary relationship, and analyzed the general characteristic and variation rule of northward typhoon affecting the Bohai Rim region. Based on the hierarchical clustering algorithm, a typhoon activity path classification model (TPCAB) was developed to carry out detailed research on the northward typhoon activity path and its impact areas. The results are as follows. (1) On average, 1~2 TCs affect the Bohai Rim region every year, with the fewest number in June. The climate change trend indicates a decrease in July and an increase in August and September. (2) The northward TCs affecting the Bohai Rim can be divided into two types: turning type TCs and direct northward type TCs. The maximum daily precipitation of the turning type TCs is mainly concentrated in the middle part of some areas in the Shandong Peninsula. The maximum daily precipitation of the direct northward type TCs is mainly distributed in the northern part of Bohai Bay and southeast of Shandong Province, with the eastern part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei exceeding 300 mm, showing strong extremity. (3) By comparing the extreme precipitation processes of the two types, it is found that the direct northward typhoons originate from more northerly locations, with more westward water vapor transport paths and closer to the inland areas of the Bohai Rim region, which demonstrates higher risk of extreme precipitation. These research findings enable a more refined assessment of typhoon impact variations in the Bohai Rim region, thereby providing precise decision-making support for typhoon disaster prevention in the region.