高级搜索

福建省暴雨致灾因子权重分析及非台风暴雨致灾危险性评估

Analysis of rainfall disaster-causing factors weight and hazard assessment of non-typhoon rainstorms in Fujian Province

  • 摘要: 开展暴雨致灾因子重要性分析和危险性评估对防范暴雨灾害至关重要。基于福建省1981—2020年66个国家气象观测站及2010—2020年1 038个省级气象观测站降水量观测数据,利用相关系数赋权法计算比较了5个季节(早春、雨季、夏季、秋季和冬季)非台风暴雨和3个时段(早、一般和晚)台风暴雨的致灾因子权重系数,并采用综合指数法开展非台风暴雨致灾危险性评估和检验。结果表明:(1) 强降水范围是各季节非台风暴雨和晚台风暴雨致灾的最主要因素,短历时强降水是夏季非台风暴雨、早台风暴雨和一般台风暴雨致灾的主要因素。(2) 1981—2020年福建省非台风暴雨过程综合危险性以2010年6月14—26日过程最大;危险性空间分布总体呈东西高、中间低的特征,西北内陆和东南沿海分别存在两个较高和高危险区。(3) 利用非台风暴雨致灾危险性评估模型对2010—2020年3次非台风暴雨过程评估显示,福建非台风暴雨致灾危险性空间分布与实际灾情基本相符。

     

    Abstract: Conducting an importance analysis of rainfall disaster-causing factors and hazard assessment is crucial for preventing rainstorm disasters. Based on precipitation observation data from 66 national meteorological stations from 1981 to 2020 and 1,038 provincial meteorological stations from 2010 to 2020 in Fujian Province, the correlation coefficient weighting method was used to calculate and compare the weight coefficients of the rainfall disaster-causing factors of non-typhoon rainstorms in 5 seasons (early spring, rainy season, summer, autumn and winter) and typhoon rainstorms in 3 periods (early, common and late). Then, the comprehensive index method was employed to conduct the hazard assessment and validation of non-typhoon rainstorms. The results are as follows: (1) The spatial extent of heavy precipitation is the primary factor in causing disasters for non-typhoon rainstorms in all seasons and for late typhoon rainstorms. Short-duration intense precipitation is the major factor causing disasters in summer non-typhoon rainstorms, early typhoon rainstorms, and common typhoon rainstorms. (2) The results of the disaster risk assessment of non-typhoon rainstorms show that the hazard of the non-typhoon rainstorm event from June 14 to 26, 2010 was the highest. There is an overall spatial distribution indicating a pattern of being high in the east and west while low in the central area, with two contiguous high and very high risk areas in the northwest inland and southeast coastal areas, respectively. (3) The spatial distributions of disaster risk for three historical non-typhoon rainstorm events from 2010 to 2020 obtained from the non-typhoon rainstorm disaster assessment model are basically consistent with the disaster situation.

     

/

返回文章
返回