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南昌“3·31”致灾雷暴大风天气过程的特征和成因

Characteristics and causes of “3·31” extreme thunderstorm gale process in northern Jiangxi

  • 摘要: 受强飑线影响,2024年3月31日凌晨南昌发生了一次致灾大风天气过程,造成3人从居民楼坠亡等的严重灾害。利用常规观测、雷达观测和地面5 min加密观测资料,分析了此次过程的观测特征,并从影响系统、环境条件、中尺度系统演变、地形影响等方面探讨了致灾大风的原因,得出了低涡-干侵入类致灾大风的天气学概念模型。结果表明:此次大风过程影响范围广、强度强、致灾重,10级以上雷暴大风站数位列江西省有气象记录以来历史第二,风速最大值达45.5 m·s−1。径向度大的高空槽、深厚的低涡、强盛的高低空急流、发展强烈的地面气旋是此次过程的影响系统。低层充沛的水汽、中等强度的热力垂直层结不稳定和强的深层垂直风切变,为飑线的组织、发展和长时间维持提供了极为有利的环境条件。显著的干空气夹卷(500 hPa露点温度差26~40 ℃)、短时强降水(5 min降水量达7~10 mm)的拖曳、低层强垂直风切变(0—1 km 12.7 m·s−1),有利于极端大风的产生。鄱阳湖夜间气温低、气压高,其西侧有湖风和环境风的辐合,有利于中尺度低压的产生,增强了极端大风的风力。此次过程由生命史约7 h、移速超过120 km·h−1的飑线造成,飑中系统结构清晰完整,雷暴高压与飑前低压之间的最强气压梯度超历史极值。雷达上弓形回波的后侧入流急流与前侧的中尺度涡旋相叠加,是南昌极端大风形成的重要原因。“中涡旋嵌入飑线前沿”是本次极端大风的关键预警点,它比致灾大风的发生提早30 min左右。

     

    Abstract: Influenced by a strong squall line, an extreme thunderstorm gale process occurred in Nanchang City on the early morning of March 31, 2024, resulted in the death of three individuals from a residential building fall. Using conventional observations from regional automatic weather stations (AWS), Doppler weather radar data, and 5-minute ground-based observation data, the observation characteristics of the process were analyzed, the causes of disastrous winds were discussed in terms of its influenced system, environmental conditions, mesoscale system evolution and topographic effects, a conceptual model of such disastrous winds was obtained. The results are as follows. The wind event was widespread, intense, and highly destructive. The number of thunderstorms with winds above level 10 is the second most in Jiangxi Province since meteorological records began, and the maximum wind speed reached 45.5 m·s−1. The key systems influencing this process include the high-altitude trough with a large radial extent, the deep low vortex, the strong low-level jet stream, the development of a powerful surface cyclone, and the high-altitude jet stream. The abundant water vapor in the lower atmosphere, moderate thermal vertical instability, and strong deep vertical wind shear provide extremely favorable conditions for the formation, and prolonged persistence of the squall line. Strong dry air entanglement (500 hPa T-Td 26~40 ℃), the drag of short-term heavy precipitation (7-10 mm in 5 minutes) and strong vertical wind shear in the lower layer (0-1 km 12.7 m·s−1) are conducive to the generation of extreme winds. The low temperature and high pressure at night in Poyang Lake, combined with the convergence of lake winds and environmental winds on its west side, is conducive to the generation of mesoscale low pressure and enhancement of extreme winds. This process was caused by a squall with a life time of about 7 h and a wind speed of more than 120 km·h−1. The structure of the squall was clear, and the strongest pressure gradient between the thunderstorm high pressure and the pre-squall low pressure exceeded the historical extreme values. The rapid inflow behind the bow-shaped echo on the radar and the mesoscale vortex on the front side are important reasons for the disastrous winds in Nanchang. The mesoscale vortex embedded in the front of the squall line is the key early warning of this extreme winds, which occurred about 30 min earlier than the occurrence of disastrous winds.

     

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