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青海高原一次极端降水天气特征及环境条件分析

Analysis of the characteristics and environmental conditions of an extreme rainfall event on Qinghai Plateau

  • 摘要: 2022年8月13日青海发生极端降水天气过程,造成严重的洪涝和山体滑坡等灾害,并间接导致“8·18”大通山洪灾害。基于高分辨率多源观测和ERA5再分析资料,利用HYSPLIT4轨迹模式、百分位法和标准化异常度计算公式,从此次过程的降水特征、天气系统及环境条件等方面结合地形作用进行了诊断分析。结果表明:此次极端降水天气发生在青海东部河谷地区及拉脊山迎风坡,该过程累计雨量大、小时雨强强、持续时间长、极端性显著、致灾严重。西太平洋副热带高压异常偏西偏北、南亚高压异常偏强是极端降水发生的天气尺度环流背景。假相当位温(θse)异常偏强3~4个标准差、对流不稳定层结深厚、对流有效位能大,为中尺度对流系统和极端降水的发生发展提供了热力条件和不稳定条件;低层中尺度切变线、风速辐合及锋区导致暴雨区700 hPa辐合异常偏强3~4个标准差,充沛的水汽在暴雨区形成偏强5个标准差以上的水汽辐合中心,低层强辐合产生强烈的垂直上升运动,触发对流不稳定能量释放及水汽抬升凝结,从而引发极端降水;偏东气流到达拉脊山后受地形阻挡被迫抬升,导致中尺度对流云团不断生成、发展、合并且移动缓慢,使得此次极端降水维持时间较长,累计雨量大。

     

    Abstract: An extreme rainfall event occurred in Qinghai on August 13, 2022, causing severe floods and landslides. The extreme rainfall also indirectly triggered the deadly flash flood in Datong County on August 18. This study analyzed this rainfall event in terms of its rainfall characteristics, synoptic systems, environmental conditions, and topographic influences, using high-resolution multi-source observational data, the ERA5 reanalysis data, the HYSPLIT4 trajectory model, standardized anomaly method, and percentile method. The results show that the extreme rainfall occurred in the eastern valley regions of Qinghai and the windward slope of the Laji Mountain, featuring high cumulative rainfall, intense hourly rainfall, long duration, exceptional extremity, and severe disaster-causing impacts. The anomalous westward and northward positioning of the Western Pacific subtropical high and the unusually strong South Asian high provided the synoptic-scale circulation backgrounds conducive to the occurrence of extreme rainfall. Pseudo-equivalent potential temperature (θse) was anomalously high by more than 3~4 standard deviation, accompanied by a deep convective instability structure and strong convective available potential energy, providing thermal and instability conditions for the development of mesoscale convective systems and extreme rainfall. The low-level meso-γ-scale shear line, wind convergence, and frontal zone led to an anomalously strong convergence on 700 hPa (3~4 standard deviation), providing a strong moisture convergence center (5 standard deviation above normal) in the rainfall region. The low-level strong convergence generated intense upward motion, triggering the release of convective instability energy, lifting and condensation of moisture, which induced extreme rainfall. The eastward airflow was later forced to ascend the Laji Mountain barrier, resulting in the continuous generation, development, merging, and slow movement of mesoscale convective cloud clusters, which contributed to the long duration and large cumulative rainfall of this extreme event.

     

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