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基于雷达回波区域嵌套的致洪暴雨预警方法研究

Research on a warning method for flash-flood rainstorms based on multi-scale, macro-to-micro nested radar echo analysis

  • 摘要: 天气雷达是对灾害性天气监测预警极为有效的工具。根据2005—2022年内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市降水量资料、多普勒天气雷达基数据、暴雨洪涝资料,选取雷达1 km高度等高距离方位显示图(Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator,CAPPI)中雷达回波的强度、面积、梯度等特征参数,根据致洪暴雨雷达回波的尺度差异,确定致洪暴雨预警分级阈值。首次研发了雷达回波区域嵌套(“大区”和“小区”结合)分析技术方法(Radar echo Nested Analysis Technique,RNAT),并建立预警指标模型,用于致洪暴雨预警。以2024年8月8—9日内蒙古自治区致洪暴雨过程为例,对该模型的预警效果进行客观自动识别检验,结果表明:(1) 雷达回波区域嵌套预警致洪暴雨指标模型的“小区”最优面积为289 km2,最佳边长为17 km。(2) 应用百分位法对最优面积识别的对流单体强度定级,确定了雷达回波区域嵌套“小区”强降水权重最大参数大于40 dBz的面积参数(S40)取值范围:蓝色(60 km2<S40≤120 km2)、黄色(120 km2<S40≤180 km2)、橙色(180 km2<S40≤210 km2)、红色(S40>210 km2)预警指标。(3)个例检验结果表明,雷达回波区域嵌套预警致洪暴雨模型,可有效提高雷达回波对致洪暴雨的预警能力,通过“小区”雷达指标判断预警可精准定位洪涝风险点并根据回波演变发布强降水预警,有助于提升天气雷达对强降水等灾害性天气的定时、定点、定量预警靶向发布能力。

     

    Abstract: Weather radar serves as an extremely effective tool for monitoring and early warning of severe weather events. Based on precipitation data, Doppler weather radar base data, and rainstorm-flood disaster records in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2005 to 2022, characteristic parameters of radar echo, such as intensity, area, and gradient at the 1 km constant altitude plan position indicator (CAPPI) level were selected and the thresholds for grading flood warning levels were determined. For the first time, we developed the Radar Echo Nested Analysis Technique (RNAT), which integrates multi-scale regional analysis, and established an early warning indicator model for rainstorm-induced floods. The warning effectiveness of this model was objectively and automatically evaluated using the flood-triggering rainstorm event that occurred in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on August 8–9, 2024. The results are as follows. (1) The optimal "small area" in the nested radar echo region warning model is 289 km2, with a corresponding side length of 17 km. (2) Percentile method was applied to classify the intensity of convective cells identified within the optimal area, establishing the range of the area parameter S40 (area with strong precipitation weight parameter greater than 40 dBz) for the "small area" in the nested region: blue warning (60 km2<S40≤120 km2), yellow warning (120 km2 < S40≤180 km2), orange warning (180 km2< S40≤210 km2), and red warning (S40>210 km2). (3) Case validation shows that the nested radar echo region indicator model can effectively enhance the early warning capability for flood-triggering rainstorms. By using the "small area" radar indicators, this model can precisely locate the flood risk points and facilitate the issuance of progressive heavy rainfall warnings based on echo evolution. This contributes to improving the targeted issuance of timely, location-specific, and quantitative early warnings for severe precipitation and other disastrous weather events using weather radar.

     

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