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上海台风强降水水汽来源的定量化研究

Quantitative study of water vapor sources for heavy precipitation in Shanghai produced by typhoons

  • 摘要: 水汽是影响台风降水强度的重要因素,探究水汽的来源对理解台风强降水过程的形成具有重要的物理意义。为揭示影响上海台风强降水(过程降水量≥50 mm)的水汽来源,针对近20 a造成上海强降水的3类台风路径:登陆上海型、近海北上型、西北型,利用逐小时的ERA5再分析资料驱动HYSPLIT轨迹模式,定量化获得降水过程的精细化水汽源地。研究结果表明,登陆上海型台风强降水有1条来自东侧的主要水汽输送路径,路径上主要的水汽源区为西北太平洋西部,水汽贡献达39.6%;近海北上型(西北型)台风强降水有来自东侧、南侧的2条(东侧、南侧、北侧的3条)主要水汽输送路径,西北太平洋西部、南海及菲律宾以东洋面、我国东南沿海为该路径上主要的水汽源区,水汽贡献分别为29.8% (18%)、18.5% (17.3%)、23% (23.1%)。此外,进一步确定了各水汽源区对降水贡献最明显的高度层及时段,强降水发生前15—168 h、9—129 h、3—48 h,位于西北太平洋西部上空950—925 hPa高度层、925—850 hPa高度层、我国东南沿海上空950—850 hPa高度层的水汽,分别对登陆上海型、近海北上型、西北型台风造成的上海强降水贡献最大,可为影响上海不同路径台风的降水预报提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Water vapor is an important factor influencing the intensity of typhoon precipitation, and therefore finding the sources of water vapor is physically important in understanding the formation of heavy precipitation processes produced by typhoons. To investigate the water vapor sources for heavy precipitation in Shanghai (process precipitation≥50 mm) produced by typhoons, the hourly ERA5 reanalysis data is used to drive the HYSPLIT trajectory model to quantitatively explore refined source areas during the process. Three types of typhoons that have caused heavy precipitation in Shanghai over the past 20 years with different paths are analyzed, including: landfall type, nearshore-northward type, and Northwestern type. The results show that heavy precipitation produced by landfall typhoons has one major water vapor trajectory from the east. The major source area on the trajectory is the west of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, with a water vapor contribution of 39.6%. Heavy precipitation produced by nearshore-northward (northwestern) typhoons has two (three) major water vapor trajectories from the east and the south (the east, the south, and the north). The major source areas on the trajectories are the west of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea and the ocean east to the Philippines, and the southeastern coast of China, with water vapor contributions of 29.8% (18%), 18.5% (17.3%), and 23% (23.1%), respectively. We further identify the altitude layer and time period of each water vapor source area that contributes most significantly to the precipitation. The water vapor located at 950-925 hPa, 925-850 hPa over the west of Northwestern Pacific Ocean, 950-850 hPa over the southeastern coast of China during 15-168 h, 9-129 h, 3-48 h before the occurrence of heavy precipitation, contribute most significantly to the heavy precipitation in Shanghai produced by landfall, nearshore-northward, and northwestern typhoons, respectively. The study can provide valuable references for precipitation intensity forecasts of typhoons with different paths influencing Shanghai.

     

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