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基于FCN算法的甘肃省强对流逐小时预报技术研究

Research on hourly forecast technology of severe convection in Gansu Province based on FCN algorithm

  • 摘要: 传统预报方法难以有效捕捉强对流天气快速演变的特征,全卷积神经网络因其有独特的局部感知特性等优势,能够有效提取中小尺度天气系统的时空演变特征。因此,亟需构建基于全卷积神经网络的预报模型来突破传统方法的局限性。本文将2017—2021年地面观测的强对流天气实况、ECMWF数值模式资料作为训练集,2022年上述数据作为测试集,采用FCN (Fully Convolutional Network)算法,构建甘肃省冰雹、雷暴大风和短时强降水(以下简称为短强)三类强对流和非强对流的0—12 h内的逐小时天气预报模型,并将模型在2023年实际业务中应用验证。结果表明:(1) 在2022年的训练集中,模型表现良好,强对流天气和和非强对流天气的整体误判率(FNR)仅为16.6%。三类强对流天气的平均临界成功指数(CSI)为25.8%,平均命中率(POD)保持在65.2%以上,且短强的预报效果最好。(2) 在2023年实际业务应用的验证集中,模型对三类强对流天气的平均CSI为24.3%,平均POD为62.6%,平均空报比率(FAR)为71.2%。在2017—2023年的全部数据集上,短强的CSI最高,达到45.5%,雷暴大风和短强的POD均超过了70%,冰雹和雷暴大风的FAR结果相似,均高于77%,短强的平均FAR最低。(3) 由模型的逐小时预报来看,冰雹在第4 h、8 h和10 h表现最好,雷暴大风在第6 h表现最好,短强在第2 h、4 h的预报效果最好。因此,本研究构建的FCN模型在强对流天气预报方面表现理想,为未来气象业务自动化提供了应用前景。

     

    Abstract: Traditional forecasting methods are difficult to effectively capture severe convective weather rapidly evolving characteristics, and there is still a problem of insufficient forecasting accuracy in meteorological operations. Fully convolutional neural networks, due to their unique local perception characteristics, can effectively extract the spatiotemporal evolution features of small and medium-sized weather systems. Therefore, it is urgent to construct a prediction model based on fully convolutional neural networks to overcome the limitations of traditional methods. This article uses ground observations of severe convective weather from 2017 to 2021 and ECMWF (the European Center of Medium range weather forecasts) numerical model data as the training set, and 2022 as the test set. The FCN (Fully Convolutional Network) algorithm was adopted to construct three types of severe convective weather forecast models for hail, convective gust, and short-term heavy rainfall within 0-12 hours in Gansu Province. The model was applied in forecast business operations in 2023. The results show that, (1) In the training set of 2022, the model performed well, with an overall false positive rate(FNR) of only 16.6% for severe convective weather and non-severe convective weather. The average critical success index (CSI) for three types of severe convective weather is 25.8%, and the average hit rate (POD) remains above 65.2%, with short and strong weather forecasts showing the best results. (2) In the validation set of forecast business operations in 2023, the average CSI of the three types of severe convective weather is 24.3%, the average POD is 62.6%, and the average false alarm ratio (FAR) is 71.2%. On all datasets from 2017 to 2023, the CSI of short-term heavy rainfall was the highest, reaching 45.5%, while the POD for thunderstorm and strong winds exceeded 70%. The FAR results for hail and thunderstorm winds were similar, both exceeding 77%, while the average FAR for short and strong winds was the lowest. (3) From the hourly forecast of the model, hail performs best in the 4th, 8th, and 10th hours, thunderstorm winds perform best in the 6th hours, and short-term intensity forecasts perform best in the 2nd and 4th hours. Therefore, the FCN model constructed in this study performs well in strong convective weather forecasting, providing application prospects for future meteorological business automation.

     

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