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盘锦市长历时暴雨特征及雨型分型研究

Study of characteristic and rainstorm patterns classification of long-duration rainstorm in Panjin

  • 摘要: 暴雨雨型对于城市防洪排涝设计具有重要意义。基于1972—2023年盘锦市盘山国家气象站分钟降雨观测资料、东亚地面及高空天气形势资料,首先分析了盘锦市长历时(持续时间6~24 h)暴雨的气候特征并进行天气分型,然后利用模糊识别法结合目估识别法将长历时暴雨雨型分型,最后利用1984—2023年灾情资料分析不同暴雨雨型的灾害特征。结果表明:(1) 盘锦市长历时暴雨场次年代分布不均,21世纪10年代和20世纪80年代最多,为7场,21世纪00年代暴雨场次最少,仅有3场。长历时暴雨持续时间以6~10 h居多,超过18 h的持续性降雨较少。降雨量在90~110 mm之间的暴雨场次最多。(2) 盘锦市长历时暴雨天气分型中北上气旋型最多,占比42.3%,其次冷锋型,占比20.4%,然后是大型气旋型,占比28.7%,东北冷涡型最少,占比8.6%。(3)将盘锦市长历时暴雨雨型分为7类,其中单峰型最多(53.1%),其次是均匀型暴雨(25.0%),双峰型暴雨(21.9%)。单峰型暴雨峰值多位于降雨后期、中期,双峰型暴雨峰值多出现在降雨前期和后期、前期和中期。 (4)灾情数据结合暴雨雨型分析表明,中部单峰、均匀型长历时暴雨易导致盘锦市严重内涝及暴雨洪涝,在防洪排涝时应引起重视。

     

    Abstract: Understanding rainstorm patterns is significant for the design of effective urban flood control and drainage systems. This study firstly analyzes the climatic characteristics of long-duration rainstorms (6~24 h) and conducts weather classification, and then long-duration rainstorms were rainstorm patterns classified using the fuzzy identification method and objective identification method. This analysis was based on the 1-minute interval rainfall data of Panjin observatory, daily surface and upper synoptic situations data of East Asia from 1972 to 2023. Lastly, the characteristics of rainstorm disasters were analyzed used disaster situation data from 1984 to 2023. The results showed that: (1) Long-duration rainstorms exhibited clear temporal variability, with fewer 3 events during the 1990s and most 7 events during 2010s and 1980s. The duration of long-duration rainstorms typically spanned between 6~10 hours, and the events of more than 18 hours were relatively rare. Long-duration rainstorms with precipitation between 90~110 mm were the most frequent. (2) The synoptic situations of long-duration rainstorms could be classified as the northward-moving cyclones with most proportion 42.3%, cold fronts with second proportion 20.4%, large cyclones with thirt proportion 28.7%, and Northeast cold vortexes with fewest proportion 8.6%. (3) The long-duration rainstorms in Panjin can be divided into seven types of rainstorm patterns with the unimodal rainstorms, uniform rainstorms and bimodal long-duration rainstorms accounting for 53.1%, 25.0% and 21.9% respectively. The peaks of the single-peak rainstorms were in the late and middle of rainstorm events, the peaks of the bimodal rainstorms were in the front and rear, in the front and middle of rainstorm events. (4) Analysis of disaster situation data and rainstorm patterns indicates single-peak in the middle and uniform long-duration rainstorms caused most severe waterlogging and flooding in Panjin, and thus should be paid special attention in future flood control and drainage planning.

     

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