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两次相似路径江淮气旋极端强降雨特征及成因分析

Analysis of the characteristics and causes of extreme heavy precipitation associated with two similar paths of Jiang-huai cyclones

  • 摘要: 2023年8月27—28日(简称“8.27”过程)和9月19—20日(简称“9.19”过程)受两次相似路径江淮气旋影响,江苏中北部出现区域性暴雨到大暴雨。基于国家站和区域站地面观测、探空、ERA5再分析及FY-4A的TBB资料并采用天气诊断分析方法对这两次强降雨过程的降雨特征、天气背景及发生成因进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)两次过程均属于区域极端强降雨过程,其中“8.27”过程强降雨的范围、强度和极值更大。(2)两次过程前期高空槽均稳定维持,地面低压倒槽增强形成江淮气旋,配合低涡切变线和低空急流以及高空分流区有利于产生强降雨,在此背景下两次过程的气旋源地、路径相似。(3) 气旋中心移至安徽前,斜压锋生产生的辐合上升运动较弱,降雨强度较弱;气旋中心移至安徽后,斜压锋生地转偏差作用增强,次级环流发展且高低空急流耦合作用增强,位于气旋第一、四象限的江苏中北部地区降雨强度显著增强。(4)“8.27”过程高层正涡度平流作用更强,较强上升运动持续时间较长,次级环流上升支呈倾斜状,结合更强的水汽条件,导致强降雨的范围、强度和极值更大;而“9.19”过程中低层暖平流作用占主导,上升运动和对流条件更强,但是次级环流上升倾斜分量较弱,最终强降雨范围相对较小。

     

    Abstract: The central and northern parts of Jiangsu have encountered reginal heavy to extreme heavy precipitation under the influence of two similar paths of Jiang-huai cyclones from August 27 to 28 (referred to as the “8.27” process) and from September 19 to 20 (referred to as the “9.19” process) in 2023. Based on the ground observation data from national and reginal stations, radiosonde, ERA5 reanalysis data and FY-4A’s TBB product, and by using synoptic diagnostic analysis methods the characteristics of heavy precipitation, weather background, and occurrence causes of these two processes have been compared and analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) Both processes were regional extremely heavy precipitation events with strong extremity. The range, rainfall intensity and extreme value of the heavy rainfall were greater in the “8.27” process. (2) During the two processes, the upper-level trough was stable in the early stage and the surface low-pressure inverted trough has enchanted to Jiang-huai cyclone, combined with the low-pressure shear line, the low-level jet stream, and the upper-level diversion zone, the circulation background was conducive to the generation of heavy precipitation. Under this background, the source area and path of the two cyclones were similar. (3) Before the center of cyclone moved to Anhui, the convergence and ascending motion produced by the baroclinic frontogenesis was weak, and the rainfall intensity was weak. After the center of cyclone moved to Anhui, the geostrophic deviation effect of the baroclinic frontogenesis was strengthened which led to the development of secondary circulation, and the coupling effect of the low-level and upper-level jet streams enhanced. The rainfall intensity in the northern and central Jiangsu, which located in the first and fourth quadrants of the cyclone, was significantly increased.(4) In the "8.27" process, the upper-level positive vorticity advection was stronger, the duration of the strong ascending motion was longer and the ascending branch of the secondary circulation was inclined. Combined with stronger water vapor conditions, the range, intensity and extreme value of heavy rainfall were larger. In the "9.19" process, the low-level warm advection was dominant, the ascending motion and convective conditions were stronger, but the ascending inclined component of the secondary circulation was weaker, which resulted in a relatively smaller range of heavy rainfall.

     

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