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台风“利奇马”(1909)活动期间不同强降水区域的水汽路径及源地贡献对比分析

Comparative analysis of the water vapor paths and sources for different heavy rainfall regions during Typhoon Lekima (1909)

  • 摘要: 水汽是台风暴雨发生的必要条件之一,探究水汽的来源对认识台风暴雨过程具有重要的物理意义。本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代大气再分析资料驱动混合单粒子拉格朗日综合轨迹模式HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model),并采用“面源贡献定量估计”方法,分析台风“利奇马”(1909)活动期间浙江和山东降水大值区的水汽路径和源地贡献的差异及其成因。结果表明:(1) 从水汽路径来看,浙江降水的水汽路径主要有4条,分别来自东太平洋、澳大利亚、西太平洋和印度洋,而山东降水的水汽路径有3条,分别来自东太平洋、印度洋和西太平洋,其中东太平洋路径占比升至51.7%,该差异的主要原因是山东降水中西南气流减弱,使得来自印度洋和澳大利亚的轨迹减少,而两个台风北侧的偏东气流输送太平洋的水汽路径占比增加。(2) 从水汽贡献率来看,浙江降水的主要水汽贡献源区是太平洋和澳大利亚,分别占33.1%和15.3%,主要原因是这两个源区的轨迹占比大且水汽转换率高;山东降水的水汽贡献主要来自太平洋(73.8%),这是由于来自此区域的轨迹占比高且这些气块吸收的水汽比高达80.8%。因此对于同一台风,不同降水过程水汽路径和贡献率也有所区别,这一结果有利于进一步理解台风降水中的水汽来源,并为台风暴雨落区的预测提供参考。

     

    Abstract:
    As water vapor is essential for typhoon precipitation, exploring its origins is of great
    physical importance for understanding the evolution of these precipitation events. The differences and their causes of water vapor paths and contribution of two centers of precipitation in Zhejiang and Shandong during Typhoon Lekima are analyzed by Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) which is driven by the data from the fifth generation atmospheric reanalysis data of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, and using the areal source receptor attribution method. The results show that: (1) there are four main moisture paths responsible for precipitation in Zhejiang, respectively from the eastern Pacific Ocean, Australia, the western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, while there are three main moisture paths for precipitation in Shandong, respectively from the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean, with the proportion of the eastern Pacific path increasing to 51.7%. The main reason for the difference of the water vapor path is related to the weakening of the south-westerly wind, which led to a reduction in trajectories from the Indian Ocean and Australia, while the easterly wind in the north of the two typhoons increased the proportion of Pacific transport pathways. (2) Regarding water vapor contribution, the primary source regions for Zhejiang are the Pacific (33.1%) and Australia (15.3%), mainly due to the high trajectory frequency and high moisture conversion rates from these regions. The water vapor contribution from the Pacific Ocean is the highest for the precipitation in Shandong, reaching 73.8%, which is attributed to the high trajectory frequency and the high moisture uptake ratio of 80.8% among air parcels from the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, water vapor pathways and sources vary across different stages of the same typhoon. These findings can enhance the understanding of water vapor sources and provide valuable references for predicting precipitation locations during typhoon events.

     

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