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两次登闽台风后部相似LMCS雨带降水差异对比分析

Comparative analysis of precipitation differences in the similar LMCS rainbands at the rear of two typhoons landing in Fujian

  • 摘要: 2023年第5号台风“杜苏芮”和2024年第3号台风“格美”登闽后深入赣北,其后部均在福建沿海地区形成线状中尺度对流系统(LMCS),两次LMCS雨带形态极其相似但产生的降水强度差异大。因此本文基于地面自动气象站、三维闪电、双偏振雷达、风廓线雷达及ERA5再分析等资料,运用统计及诊断方法对这两次相似雨带上的降水强度、闪电活动、降水云微物理结构及降水成因等差异进行对比分析,结果表明:(1) 两次LMCS过程均具有累积雨量大、持续时间长、夜雨明显、雨强极值强、强降水回波后向传播及降水“列车效应”等特征,但台风“杜苏芮”降水更具有极端性。(2)“杜苏芮”LMCS雨带强雨强上空云闪活跃,强雷暴特征显著;“格美”闪电稀少,表现弱雷暴特征。(3) 云微物理垂直结构特征显示,“杜苏芮”强雨强上空的强回波主体对流质心高于0 ℃层,双偏振HCL产品显示0 ℃层上下以固液混合粒子共同主导,为非暖云聚合碰并增长过程,该特征与大陆对流降水相似;“格美”强雨强上空的强回波主体对流质心低于0 ℃层,以液相雨滴粒子为主导,为暖云微物理增长过程,与热带海洋对流降水特征相符。(4) “杜苏芮”LMCS过程降水明显强于“格美”的关键因子在于其大气垂直运动表现更强且持续时间更长,前者粒子浓度明显高于后者,导致雨强显著。过程双偏振参量ZH≥52 dBz、ZDR>2.5 dB、KDP>1.6 (°)∙km−1且持续时间长达30 min以上,可作为100 mm∙h−1雨强预报的参考量。

     

    Abstract: Typhoon Doksuri (2305) and Gaemi (2403) penetrated northern Jiangxi after landing in Fujian, with their trailing edges forming linear mesoscale convective systems (LMCS) along the Fujian coast. Although the two LMCS rainband shapes were extremely similar, their resulting precipitation intensities differed significantly. Basing on the ground automatic meteorology stations data, three-dimensional lightning data, dual-polarization radar data, wind profiler radar data and ERA5 reanalysis data, the differences in precipitation intensity, lightning activity, microphysical structures of precipitating clouds and precipitation formation mechanisms on the two similar rainbands were comparative analyzed using statistical and diagnostic methods in this paper. The results are as follows. (1) Both LMCS cases are characterized by large accumulated precipitation, long duration, obvious heavy rainfall occurring nighttime, rainfall intensity extreme high, backward propagation of rainfall echoes and precipitation train effects. But heavy rainfall in LMCS of Typhoon Doksuri is more extreme. (2) Over the strong rainfall intensity of the LMCS rainbands, Typhoon Doksuri exhibites active cloud flashes with pronounced characteristics of severe thunderstorms, while Typhoon Gaemi show sparse cloud flashes activity and displays features of weak thunderstorms. (3) The vertical structure characteristics of cloud microphysics show: In the heavy rainfall upper air of Typhoon Doksuri, the strong convective core of strong echo is above the 0 ℃level. The dual-polarization HCL product shows that the solid-liquid mixture particles are the main dominant factor above and below the 0 ℃level, which is a non-warm cloud aggregation collision and growth process, and characteristic is similar to the continental convective precipitation.To Typhoon Gaemi, the strong convective core of strong echo is below the 0 ℃level, and liquid rain droplet particles are the main dominant factor, which is a warm cloud microphysical growth process, and this characteristic is consistent with the of tropical oceanic convective precipitation. (4) The key factor for the difference in the accumulated precipitation lies in the fact that the atmospheric vertical motion of Typhoon Doksuri LMCS case is stronger and lasts longer and the former has a significantly higher concentration of particles than the latter, resulting in a significant increase in rainfall intensity. The dual-polarization parameters ZH≥52 dBz, ZDR>2.5 dB, KDP>1.6 (°)∙km−1 and a duration of more than 30 min can be used as a reference for 100 mm∙h−1 rainfall intensity forecasts.

     

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