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2022年北京一次回流强降雪过程诊断分析

Diagnostic analysis of a return-flow heavy snowfall in Beijing in 2022

  • 摘要: 为深入理解华北地区冬季回流型强降雪的形成机制,基于地面观测、风廓线、ERA5再分析等资料,采用天气学诊断分析方法和HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory)粒子追踪模型对2022年2月12—13日北京地区一次回流强降雪过程的环流配置、粒子轨迹、气象因子及湿位涡MPV(Moist Potential Vorticity)进行分析,并识别出具有预报指示意义的关键指标。研究发现:此次强降雪由500 hPa冷涡、高低空急流耦合、850 hPa低涡及低层偏东风回流共同作用所致。北京地区低层偏东风主要来自其东北方向,主要集中在1.5 km以下高度,2.5 km以上的西南气流主要来自其西南方向;地形通过阻挡和强迫抬升等作用,显著改变偏南气流的动力和热力性质,从而对降雪有增幅作用。回流形成的“冷垫”与700 hPa西南暖湿气流叠加,在偏南风增强背景下促进锋生,显著加强上升运动与降雪强度;强降雪发生在MPV分量MPV1>0和MPV2<0的高绝对值叠加区,其发展主要源于暖湿空气沿冷垫斜升引发的气旋性涡度剧烈发展。具有预报指示意义的关键指标包括:地面偏东风持续配合中低层偏南风加速预示降雪增强;MPV1极大值与MPV2极小值同步突变也对应降水增加。本研究不仅给出了本次回流降雪的物理概念模型,也丰富了华北冬季回流强降雪的预报预警指标。

     

    Abstract: To gain a deeper understanding of the formation mechanisms of intense return-flow snowfall in North China during winter, this study analyzes the heavy snowfall event that occurred in Beijing on February 12–13, 2022, using ground observations, wind profiler data, and ERA5 reanalysis. Synoptic diagnostic methods combined with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) particle trajectory model are employed to investigate the synoptic circulation configuration, Lagrangian particle trajectories, key meteorological factors, and moist potential vorticity (MPV), while also identifying critical indicators with predictive value. The results show that the heavy snowfall resulted from the combined influence of a 500-hPa cold vortex, coupled upper- and lower-level jet streams, an 850-hPa low vortex, and a low-level easterly return flow; the low-level easterly flow over Beijing primarily originated from the northeast and was concentrated below approximately 1.5 km, whereas the southwesterly flow above 2.5 km mainly came from the southwest; topography significantly modified the dynamical and thermodynamical characteristics of the southerly flow through blocking and forced lifting, thereby enhancing snowfall; the easterly return flow formed a near-surface “cold air cushion” that overlapped with a southwesterly warm, moist airstream around 700 hPa, and under strengthening southerly winds, frontogenesis was promoted, markedly intensifying upward motion and snowfall; the most intense snowfall occurred in the region where high absolute values of MPV components overlapped (MPV1 > 0 and MPV2 < 0), with snowfall development primarily driven by vigorous cyclonic vorticity generated through the slantwise ascent of warm, moist air over the cold cushion. Key indicators with forecasting significance include: persistent surface easterlies combined with accelerating southerly winds in the mid-to-lower troposphere signaling snowfall intensification; and concurrent abrupt increases in the maximum of MPV1 and decreases in the minimum of MPV2 corresponding to precipitation enhancement. This study not only establishes a refined physical conceptual model for this return-flow snowfall event but also enriches the set of operational forecasting and warning indicators for intense winter return-flow snowfall in North China.

     

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