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“6·20”浙江西北部梅汛期极端暴雨过程分析

Analysis of the "6·20" Extreme precipitation event during the Meiyu season in northwestern Zhejiang

  • 摘要: 2024年浙江西北部梅汛期“6·20”暴雨过程具有持续时间长、累积降水量大、局地性强、极端性等特点。为探究此次极端暴雨天气过程的特征及成因,利用浙江省及周边地区的自动站降水数据、ERA5再分析资料、双偏振雷达及中小尺度数值模式资料等,结合天气学诊断方法,分析了此次暴雨过程的极端性特征、成因机制、气象因子气候异常程度、地形强迫和雷达回波特征等。结果表明:(1) 此次暴雨过程发生的成因机制存在阶段性演变:阶段Ⅰ由边界层急流出口区的辐合触发对流,低层对流不稳定层结的能量释放维持发展;阶段Ⅱ因高层西北气流辐散场与低层西南急流辐合场相耦合的动力强迫,产生抽吸效应使降水持续。(2) 暴雨过程的极端性受到水汽通量和低空急流的显著气候异常影响。(3) 地形对低空风场存在动力强迫作用,山前的降水增幅明显,高山前的过程平均累积降水量是其他地区的1.78倍。(4) 降水回波具有阶段性差异:阶段Ⅰ以对流云为主,低层存在西南径向速度辐合;阶段Ⅱ为层积混合云降水,在高低空径向速度辐合辐散的耦合处对应有对流云。研究揭示了此次梅汛期极端暴雨是由天气系统阶段性演变导致长时间持续降水而造成,其中天气系统与地形强迫效应的共同作用是极端暴雨呈局地性的关键原因。

     

    Abstract: In 2024, the “June 20” rainstorm event during the Meiyu season in northwestern Zhejiang was characterized by its long duration, large cumulative precipitation, highly localized impacts, and extreme intensity. To investigate the features and mechanisms of this extreme rainstorm, multiple datasets were employed, including automatic weather station precipitation data from Zhejiang and surrounding areas, ERA5 reanalysis data, dual-polarization radar observations, and mesoscale numerical model data. Combined with synoptic diagnostic methods, the study analyzed the extreme precipitation characteristics, the mechanisms, the degree of climatic anomalies, terrain effects, and radar echo characteristics. The results are as follows. (1) The internal mechanisms of the rainstorm exhibited a clear phased evolution. In phase I, convection was triggered by convergence in the exit region of the boundary layer jet and sustained by energy release from a conditionally unstable layer in the lower troposphere. In phase II, dynamic forcing resulting from the coupling of upper-level northwesterly divergence and lower-level southwesterly jet convergence created a pumping effect that sustained precipitation. (2) The extreme nature of the rainstorm was significantly influenced by notable climatic anomalies in water vapor flux and low-level jet. (3) Topography exerted a dynamic forcing on low-level wind, with a pronounced increase in precipitation in front of mountains, where the average accumulated precipitation amount was 1.78 times that in other areas. (4) Radar echoes of precipitation displayed phased differences: Phase I was dominated by convective clouds with convergence of low-level southwesterly radial velocity, while phase II featured stratocumulus mixed-cloud precipitation, with convective clouds corresponding to the coupling of radial convergence and divergence at high and low levels. The study reveals that the extreme rainstorm during the Meiyu season resulted from sustained precipitation due to the phased evolution of weather systems, and that the combined influence of weather systems and topographic forcing was key to its localized nature.

     

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