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四类环流形势下影响山东的台风降水特征和暴雨诊断指标分析

Typhoon precipitation characteristics and diagnostic indicators of heavy rainstorms affecting Shandong under four types of circulation patterns

  • 摘要: 近年来台风北上活动渐趋活跃,山东作为北方台风暴雨影响的关键区之一,现有针对性诊断指标研究尚显缺乏,难以支撑区域防灾减灾实际需求。本文基于1979—2020年《台风年鉴》,首先利用ERA5再分析资料,采用K均值(K-Means)方法对90个台风降水开始影响山东时的500 hPa位势高度场进行分类,然后系统分析各类台风的降水分布特征和气象要素配置,最后提炼出四类环流形势下影响山东的台风暴雨的定量诊断指标。结果表明:(1) 按频次排序,影响山东的台风降水的环流形势可按500 hPa环流分为槽脊对峙型、平直西风型、低槽型和高压坝型这四种。(2) 前三类台风降水集中于山东中东部,高压坝型台风降水集中于120°E以西,强降水和非强降水个例的过程降水量差异极大。(3) 从气象要素配置来看,槽脊对峙型、低槽型和平直西风型台风影响山东后的24 h内、高压坝型台风影响后的72 h内,降水为暖平流主导,暴雨和850 hPa台风倒槽偏南风辐合密切相关,随后冷空气侵入引发的锋生作用使台风西侧在弱湿度条件下仍能触发暴雨。(4) 850 hPa比湿(q)、850 hPa相对湿度(RH)、整层可降水量(PWAT)和850 hPa假相当位温(θse)是诊断山东台风暴雨的可靠指标,其中槽脊对峙型与高压坝型台风暴雨要求高能高湿环境(q>11 g·kg−1RH>75%,PWAT>49 kg·m2θse>338 K),低槽型次之,平直西风型指标要求相对最低。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, the northward movement of typhoons has become increasingly active. Shandong is a major area in northern China vulnerable to typhoon-induced rainstorms. However, few targeted studies have been carried out on relevant diagnostic indicators, which cannot effectively guide local disaster prevention and mitigation work. Using Typhoon Yearbookand ERA5 reanalysis from 1979 to 2020, this study adopted the K-Means clustering method to classify the 500 hPa geopotential height fields of 90 typhoon events when their precipitation began to affect Shandong. The characteristics of typhoon precipitation and the configurations of meteorological elements are systematically analyzed for each pattern. Quantitative diagnostic indicators for typhoon rainstorms under each circulation pattern are subsequently developed. The results are as follows. (1) Ranked by frequency, typhoons affecting Shandong with precipitation can be categorized into four types based on 500 hPa circulation: ridge-trough confrontation pattern, straight westerly flow pattern, trough pattern, and high-pressure dam pattern. (2) Typhoon precipitation under the first three patterns concentrates in central-eastern Shandong, while the high-pressure dam pattern exhibits concentrated precipitation west of 120°E. The accumulated precipitation volume varies significantly between heavy rainfall cases and other non-heavy rainfall cases. (3) Regarding the atmospheric element configuration, typhoon-induced rainstorms under the ridge-trough confrontation, trough, and straight westerly flow patterns are predominantly driven by warm advection within 24 hours post-impact, with significant correlation to low-level southerly wind convergence at 850 hPa near the typhoon's periphery. In contrast, the high-pressure dam pattern maintains warm advection dominance for up to 72 hours. Subsequently, frontal genesis triggered by cold air intrusion enables heavy rainfall on the typhoon's western flank even under weak humidity conditions. (4) The 850 hPa specific humidity (q), 850 hPa relative humidity (RH), precipitable water (PWAT), and 850 hPa pseudo-equivalent potential temperature (θse) constitute reliable diagnostic indicators for typhoon rainstorms in Shandong. Typhoon rainstorms under ridge-trough confrontation and high-pressure dam patterns predominantly occur in energy-moisture enriched environments characterized by q>11 g·kg−1, RH>75%, PWAT>49 kg·m2, and θse>338 K, followed by the trough pattern, while the straight westerly flow type demonstrates the minimum indicator requirements.

     

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