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1990-2022年暖季(5-9月)黄淮气旋及暴雨天气特征

Synoptic features of cyclones and rainstorm in Huang-Huai region during the warm season (May-September) from 1990 to 2022

  • 摘要: 为加深对黄淮气旋及其暴雨天气特征的认识,基于ERA5再分析和黄淮地区国家气象站日降水数据,采用黄淮气旋客观识别、统计等方法研究了1990-2022年暖季(5-9月)黄淮气旋的活动规律及其引发暴雨的天气特征,并采用T-PCA和K-means相结合方法对气旋暴雨进行天气分型,分析各天气型强降水的分布特征。结果表明:1990-2022年暖季黄淮气旋源地中心位于黄淮中部,豫皖鲁苏四省交界地带是其活动的高频中心。气旋日数呈1.9 d·(10 a−1)的增长趋势,而暴雨日数、气旋暴雨日数、气旋区域暴雨日数基本维持不变, 四者2010年以后均为先减小后增加的年代际变化特征。约44%的黄淮气旋会引发暴雨,7-8月该比例达70%,强气旋更易引发区域性大暴雨;而5月仅32%的黄淮气旋能引发暴雨,但气旋暴雨日数占当月总暴雨日数比例达49%,是春末黄淮暴雨的重要影响系统。黄淮气旋暖季暴雨的大尺度环流型可分为西北太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)与低槽型、WPSH边缘型和西风槽型3类,其中WPSH与低槽型在分散性暴雨中占比最大(47.2%),而西风槽型则在区域性暴雨中占比最大(37.9%)。本研究完善了黄淮气旋及其暴雨特征的认识,可为该类暴雨预报提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To deepen the understanding of the activity characteristics of Huang-Huai Cyclones (HHCs) and their associated rainstorm weather features, based on the ERA5 reanalysis data and daily precipitation data from national meteorological stations in the Huang-Huai region, this study investigates the activity characteristics of HHCs and the weather characteristics of their induced rainstorm weather during the warm season(May—September) from 1990 to 2022 by employing objective identification and statistical methods for HHCs. Meanwhile, synoptic classification of HHCs-induced rainstorms is objectively typed by a combined method of T-PCA and K-means, and the distribution characteristics of heavy precipitation under each synoptic pattern are analyzed. The results show that the source center of warm-season HHCs is located in the central Huang-Huai region during 1990–2022, and the junction of Henan, Anhui, Shandong and Jiangsu provinces is the high-frequency center of their activity. The number of HHCs days has shown an increasing trend at a rate of 1.9 days per decade, while the numbers of rainstorm days,HHCs-induced rainstorm days, and HHCs-induced regional rainstorm days remained relatively stable.All four parameters exhibited a decadal variation characterized by an initial decrease followed by an increase after 2010. About 44% of HHCs can trigger rainstorms during the warm season, and this proportion reaches 70% in July–August; strong HHCs are more likely to induce regional heavy rainstorms. In May, only 32% of HHCs can trigger rainstorms, but HHCs-induced rainstorm days account for 49% of the total rainstorm days in that month, indicating that HHCs are an important synoptic system for rainstorms in the Huang-Huai region during late spring. The large-scale circulation patterns associated with HHCs-induced rainstorms during the warm season can be classified into three categories: the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and trough pattern, the WPSH edge pattern, and the westerly trough pattern. The WPSH and trough pattern contributed the most to scattered rainstorms, with a proportion of 47.2%, while the westerly trough pattern accounted for the largest share (37.9%) in regional rainstorms.This study improves the understanding of the characteristics of HHCs and their associated rainstorms, and can provide a scientific reference for the forecasting of this type of rainstorm.

     

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