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“21•6”东北冷涡暴雨多尺度作用与水汽源区定量贡献分析

Analysis of the multi-scale effects and the quantitative contribution of moisture sources of "21•6" Northeast cold vortex rainstorm

  • 摘要: 东北冷涡是中国东北地区重要的天气影响系统。选取2021年6月9—10日发生在辽宁的一次东北冷涡暴雨过程(以下简称“21•6”东北冷涡暴雨),利用多源观测及ERA5再分析等数据,分析东北冷涡活动及降水特征,同时进行多尺度动、热力诊断,并结合FLEXPART模式和水汽源区定量贡献分析方法开展水汽溯源,探究冷涡暴雨的形成机理。结果表明:(1)东北冷涡暴雨期间,冷涡(北涡)强度先增强后减弱,其半径也随之先增大后减小。辽宁区域平均降水前期迅速增强,先后在夜间至凌晨和午后至傍晚出现两个降水峰值;强降水位于地形迎风坡。(2) 东北冷涡携带干冷空气与冷涡低槽前暖湿气流交汇,形成高空锋区;辽宁处于高低空急流耦合区,受冷涡东南部偏南天气型低空急流影响,边界层急流顶部风速辐合位置对应较强降水落区。(3) 降水初期,在对流不稳定层结,近地面高温高湿和黄渤海东南风向岸辐合作用下,辽东半岛西南沿海最先触发对流云团,并东移发展;强降水阶段,低空急流中有呈“列车效应”不断向辽宁南部移动的对流云团,激发较强上升运动。(4) 对此次冷涡暴雨有重要贡献的水汽源区依次是中国中东部大陆及其沿海(35.69%)、西北太平洋(33.69%)、中国南海-南亚群岛(14.72%)以及目标区域自身(6.38%);前三者的源区水汽摄取量均十分明显,尽管大多水汽都沿途释放,最终的水汽贡献仍较高。

     

    Abstract: The Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) is an important weather system affecting Northeast China. In this study, based on multi-source observations and ERA5 reanalysis, an NECV rainstorm that occurred in Liaoning Province on June 9–10, 2021 (hereinafter referred to as the "21•6" NECV rainstorm) is selected to analyze the NECV activity and precipitation characteristics, and multi-scale dynamic and thermal diagnoses are conducted. Then, FLEXPART and the quantitative contribution analysis method of moisture sources are utilized to track the moisture sources, exploring the formation mechanism of the NECV rainstorm. The results are as follows. (1) During the NECV rainstorm, the intensity of NECV (north vortex) first increases and then decreases, with its radius expanding and then contracting accordingly. The average precipitation in Liaoning increases rapidly in the early stage and peaks from night to morning and from afternoon to evening. Heavy precipitation occurs on the windward side of the terrain. (2) The upper-level frontal zone is formed when the warm, humid air in front of the NECV trough interacts with the dry, cold air carried by the NECV. Liaoning is in a favorable position for the coupling of the high- and low-level jets, which is affected by the southerly weather pattern low-level jet in the southeast of the NECV. The convergence position of the wind at the top of the boundary-layer jet corresponds to strong precipitation. (3) In the early stage of precipitation, a convective cloud initially triggers at the southwestern coast of the Liaodong Peninsula, then moves eastward and develops under the conditions of convective instability, high temperatures and humidity near the ground, and southeast winds from the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea convergence towards the shore. During heavy precipitation, convective clouds in the low-level jet that exhibit the "train effect" continuously move towards southern Liaoning, triggering strong upward movement. (4) The major moisture source regions contributing to the NECV rainstorm are east-central China and its coastal regions (35.69%), the western North Pacific region (33.69%), the South China Sea-South Asia Islands (14.72%), and the target region itself (6.38%). The moisture uptake of the first three regions is particularly significant. Despite a lot of moisture being released along the way, the final moisture contributions still remain high.

     

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