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深度学习光流融合方法在复杂地形区分钟级降水临近预报中的应用

Application of deep learning optical flow fusion method in minute-scale precipitation nowcasting over complex terrain

  • 摘要: 为提高复杂地形区0—2 h降水临近预报精度,本文提出了“物理–数据双驱动”公里–分钟级光流融合方法(Fused)。该方法融合了循环全对场变换RAFT (Recurrent all-pairs field transforms)光流与经典的Farneback稠密光流法,基于2022—2024年5—9月中国区域的5 km多源融合分析产品训练,并在2025年大别山区45次降水过程上进行独立检验。检验结果显示:在120 min预报时效内,针对复杂地形区Fused方案的均方根误差为0.55 mm,较单独使用RAFT方法与Farneback方法分别降低19%与34%;雨区相关系数达0.51;基于对象的诊断评估显示,对象相似度为0.73,面积膨胀小于10%,质心漂移低于5 km;1 h雨区临界成功指数达0.42,2 h预报仍保持业务可用水平。融合光流场平均绝对散度为2.8×10−5 s−1,相对误差小于5%,满足质量守恒近似要求。

     

    Abstract: To improve the accuracy of 0–2 h precipitation nowcasting over complex terrain, a kilometer- and minute-scale optical-flow fusion framework (Fused) driven by both physics and data principles is proposed. This method fuses the Recurrent All-Pairs Field Transforms (RAFT) optical flow with the classical Farneback dense optical flow. It was trained on the 5-km multi-source merged precipitation analysis product over China from May to September during 2022–2024 and independently validated against 45 precipitation events in 2025 over the Dabie Mountain region. Verification results for complex terrain demonstrate that, within the 120-min forecast lead time, the Fused method achieves an RMSE of 0.55 mm, representing reductions of 19% and 34% compared with the RAFT and Farneback methods, respectively. The rain area correlation coefficient is 0.51. The object-based diagnostic evaluation results show an object similarity of 0.73, area expansion of below 10%, and centroid displacement of less than 5 km. The critical success index (CSI) for 1-h rain areas reaches 0.42, while the 2-h forecast remains operationally usable. The mean absolute divergence of the fused optical flow field is 2.8×105 s1, with a relative error below 5%, satisfying the mass conservation approximation requirement.

     

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