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基于经验正交分解的短临降水预报订正方法检验评估

Evaluation of an empirical orthogonal function-based correction method for precipitation nowcasting

  • 摘要: 有效抑制数值模式误差是优化0—2 h短临降水数值预报精度的核心难题,而基于统计方法的模式后处理正是实现这一目标的重要途径。为提高中国气象局中尺度数值模式CMA-MESO (China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model)的短临降水预报准确性,本文以多源融合降水观测资料为基准,采用经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)分解方法,构建了适配CMA-MESO模式的短临降水统计订正方法,并将该方法应用于ERA5再分析降水资料,通过补充订正试验系统评估订正方法的模式依赖性。结果表明:(1) EOF能够充分利用观测与预报降水EOF空间模态与时间系数之间的统计关系,合理订正预报场对应模态的时间系数,进一步结合观测降水空间结构信息,实现对预报降水的有效订正。(2) 典型个例和批量订正试验均显示,该方法能够改善CMA-MESO降水预报的量值和落区误差。订正后模式与观测降水的平均空间相关系数由0.08提高至0.56;对于0.1 mm·h−1和30 mm·h−1阈值降水,平均ETS评分分别由0.07、0.01提高至0.40、0.10,平均FSS评分由0.40、0.10提升至0.80、0.50。(3) 该方法对ERA5再分析资料的降水也有很好改进效果,订正后平均空间相关系数由0.12提高至0.61,证明该方法具备良好的跨模式适用性。(4) 该方法对模式未来3 h内的降水都有稳定的订正效果,预报时效超过3 h后订正效果则快速衰减。综合分析表明,本文构建的订正方法对推进数值预报结果在短临降水业务预报中的应用具有重要参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Effectively reducing numerical model errors remains a major challenge in improving the accuracy of 0–2 h precipitation nowcasts. Statistical post-processing provides an important approach to improving short-term precipitation forecasts produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. To improve the precipitation nowcasting accuracy of the China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model (CMA-MESO), this study develops a statistical correction method based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis tailored to CMA-MESO precipitation forecasts using multisource merged precipitation observations as the reference. The method is further applied to ERA5 reanalysis precipitation data to evaluate its dependence on the input data source. The results show that: (1) The EOF-based correction method effectively captures the statistical relationships between the spatial modes and temporal coefficients of observed and forecast precipitation. By correcting the temporal coefficients of the forecast modes while incorporating the spatial structure information derived from observations, the method can effectively reconstruct the corrected precipitation field. (2) Both a representative case study and batch correction experiments demonstrate that the method effectively reduces errors in precipitation magnitude and spatial location of CMA-MESO precipitation forecasts. After correction, the mean spatial correlation coefficient between CMA-MESO forecasts and observations increases from 0.08 to 0.56. For precipitation thresholds of 0.1 and 30 mm·h−1, the mean Equitable Threat Score (ETS) increases from 0.07 and 0.01 to 0.40 and 0.10, respectively, while the mean Fractions Skill Score (FSS) increases from 0.40 and 0.10 to approximately 0.80 and 0.50, respectively. (3) The method also substantially improves ERA5 reanalysis precipitation, with the mean spatial correlation coefficient increasing from 0.12 to 0.61, demonstrating its applicability to different precipitation data sources. (4) The correction method provides stable improvements for CMA-MESO precipitation forecasts within the first 3 h, whereas its effectiveness decreases rapidly at lead times beyond 3 h. Overall, the EOF-based correction method can effectively reduce precipitation nowcasting errors in CMA-MESO and significantly improve the accuracy of short-term precipitation forecasts, providing a useful reference for the operational application of statistical post-processing in precipitation nowcasting.

     

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