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鲁南两次黄淮低涡大暴雨特征及雨强差异机制对比分析

Comparative analysis of thermodynamic and dynamic structures of two heavy rainfall events triggered by the Huanghuai low vortex over southern Shandong

  • 摘要: 黄淮低涡是山东主汛期强降雨的关键影响系统,数值模式对其暴雨强度精细化预报偏差较大。2024年7月17日(简称“24·7”过程)和2025年9月12日(简称“25·9”过程)鲁南均出现了黄淮低涡影响下的区域性大暴雨,二者强降雨落区相对低涡中心位置不同且小时雨强差异显著。基于加密地面观测、高空探测、降水天气现象仪及再分析资料,定量对比分析了两次过程雨强差异的物理机制。结果表明:(1) “24·7”过程为低涡东南侧的暖区暴雨,小时雨强大;“25·9”过程大暴雨位于低涡暖切变线北缘,小时雨强弱。(2) “24·7”过程在高低空急流动力耦合与条件不稳定能量释放等机制影响下,形成伸展至200 hPa的深厚竖直上升运动,最大达−7.5 Pa·s−1,而“25·9”过程低空暖湿急流在向北倾斜的暖锋锋面上斜升形成湿斜压对称不稳定层结,上升运动偏弱且浅薄,最大仅−3.7 Pa·s−1,伸展至400 hPa。“24·7”过程垂直运动驱动了较强水平和垂直水汽输送,凝结潜热中心位于400~600 hPa,峰值达4.6~4.9 W·kg−1,正反馈效应进一步增大降雨强度;而“25·9”过程水汽输送弱,潜热释放集中在650~700 hPa,峰值强度为1~1.5 W·kg−1;其非绝热加热始终以暖平流为主导,潜热作用相对较弱,正反馈作用有限。(3) “24·7”过程雨滴谱宽,存在6 mm特大雨滴,大粒子碰并增长剧烈,“25·9”过程以2 mm以下小雨滴为主,粒子碰并作用弱,雨强整体偏低。研究结果可为黄淮低涡东侧暴雨关键区内雨强精细化预报和关键影响因子的量化提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The Huang-Huai vortex is a key influencing system for heavy rainfall during Shandong's main flood season, yet numerical models exhibit significant biases in forecasting rainfall intensity associated with the vortex. On July 17, 2024 (referred to as the "24·7" event) and September 12, 2025 (referred to as the "25·9" event), regional torrential rains occurred in southern Shandong under the influence of the Huang-Huai vortex, with notable differences in rainfall intensity and spatial distribution relative to the vortex center. Based on dense ground observations, upper-air soundings, precipitation weather phenomenon instruments, and reanalysis data, this study quantitatively compares the physical mechanisms behind the differences in rainfall intensity between these two events. Results show that the "24·7" event featured warm-sector convective rain on the southeast side of the vortex, characterized by high hourly rainfall rates; whereas the "25·9" event had intense rainfall along the northern edge of the warm shear line within the vortex, with weaker hourly rainfall intensity. During the "24·7" event, deep vertical updrafts extending to 200 hPa, with peak vertical velocities of −7.5 Pa·s1, developed due to dynamic coupling between low- and high-level jet streams and release of conditional instability energy. In contrast, during the "25·9" event, a low-level warm and moist jet ascended along the northward-tilting warm front, forming a moist baroclinic symmetrically unstable stratification, resulting in weaker and shallower updrafts extending only to 400 hPa with a maximum vertical velocity of −3.7 Pa·s1. The vertical motion during the "24·7" event enhanced both horizontal and vertical moisture transport, with condensation latent heat centers located between 400 and 600 hPa, peaking at 4.6–4.9 W·kg1, enhancing rainfall intensity through positive feedback. In contrast, moisture transport was weak during the "25·9" event, with latent heat release concentrated between 650 and 700 hPa, peaking at 1–1.5 W·kg1. The thermodynamic tendency remained dominated by warm advection throughout, while diabatic heating from latent heat release was relatively weak, resulting in limited positive feedback. Raindrop size distributions were broader during the "24·7" event, including large raindrops exceeding 6 mm, with intense coalescence growth among large particles, while the "25·9" event consisted mainly of small raindrops below 2 mm, exhibiting weak particle collision and coalescence processes, resulting in overall lower rainfall intensity. These findings provide valuable insights for improving the fine-scale forecasting of rainfall intensity and quantifying key influencing factors in critical regions affected by the eastern side of the Huang-Huai vortex.

     

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