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长江流域逐时快速循环同化预报系统的评估检验

Assessment and verification of the Yangtze River Basin hourly rapid update cycling assimilation and forecast system

  • 摘要: 面向长江流域灾害天气预报预警和精细化专业气象服务需求,基于CMA-MESO (China Meteorological Administration MESOscale Weather Forecast System) 6.0 版构建了1 km分辨率逐时快速更新循环同化预报系统IHR-RUC (Institute of Heavy Rain -Rapid Update Cycle),并实现了8类观测资料同化应用。为综合评估IHR-RUC的性能,利用2025年夏季(6—8月)业务试运行结果,评估各类资料的同化效果,检验地面要素和多时效降水预报结果,并与CMA-MESO 3 km模式进行了预报性能对比。结果表明:(1) 暖启动时同化背景场来自前次循环的1 h预报,其背景均方根误差比冷启动时减小25%~35%。(2) IHR-RUC能有效吸收多源观测并再现对流活动,但存在强降水范围偏大及最大强度偏小的问题;GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System)水汽同化可减少这些误差。(3) IHR-RUC地面要素预报整体优于CMA-MESO 3 km,其中10 m风速改进显著。(4) IHR-RUC 3 h强降水(>20 mm)的多时效预报(3—12 h)中,降水强度在3—6 h预报时效内偏差最大,降水频次在9—12 h时效内预报最优。在短期时效(12—36 h),IHR-RUC 24 h降水量偏强,但TS评分高于CMA-MESO 3 km。该研究结果可为模式改进和不同时效预报业务应用提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To meet the urgent demands for disaster weather forecasting, early warning operations, and refined professional meteorological services in the Yangtze River Basin, a 1-km resolution hourly rapid cycling assimilation and forecast system, referred to as the IHR-RUC (Institute of Heavy Rain-Rapid Update Cycle) system, was developed based on the CMA-MESO (China Meteorological Administration MESO scale weather forecast system) version 6.0 model. The system implements assimilation applications for eight types of observations. Using operational trial results from the summer of 2025 (June to August), this study evaluates its assimilation diagnostics, verifies surface variable forecasts and multi-lead-time precipitation forecasts, and compares forecast performance with the CMS-MESO 3-km model. The results are as follows. (1) For warm starts, the assimilation background field comes from the 1-h forecast of the previous cycle, which reduces the background root-mean-square error (RMSE) by 25%~35% compared to cold starts. (2) The IHR-RUC effectively assimilates diverse observations and captures convection, but it tends to overextend heavy precipitation areas and underestimate peak intensity. The GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) water vapor assimilation can mitigate these biases. (3) Forecast verification indicates that IHR-RUC generally outperforms the CMA-MESO 3 km in surface variables, notably the 10-m wind speed. (4) For 3-hourly heavy precipitation forecasts (>20 mm) at multi-lead-time (3-12 h) by IHR-RUC, the precipitation intensity bias peaks at 3-6 h, while precipitation frequency is best predicted at 9-12 h. In short-term forecasts (12-36 h), IHR-RUC overpredicts the 24-h precipitation but attains higher TS than CMA-MESO 3 km. These results can provide references for model improvement and operational applications at different forecast lead times.

     

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