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台风“美莎克”(2610)在广西北部湾近岸增强成因

Mechanisms for the nearshore intensification of Typhoon Maysak (2610) over the Beibu Gulf, Guangxi

  • 摘要: 近岸台风快速增强是强度预报的突出难点。台风“美莎克” (2610)在北部湾近岸出现强度跃升并造成广西严重风雨影响,其增强成因亟待厘清。利用多源资料,通过大气动热力诊断,分析了“美莎克”近岸增强过程中环境背景及内部动热力过程的演变。结果表明:(1)异常偏暖的北部湾海温及高热含量为“美莎克”近岸增强提供了关键的能量基础,“美莎克”近岸减速进一步放大了海洋热力外强迫的增强效应。(2)南亚高压东风急流东扩一方面增强了高层出流,另一方面也伴随强环境垂直风切变,二者动力竞争,而边界层气流近岸辐合通过拉伸效应推动涡度持续增长,从动力上弥补了强垂直风切变的不利影响。(3)热力上尽管大尺度水汽输送因孟加拉湾风暴截留而减弱,但近岸辐合增强了上升运动促使深对流向台风中心集中,导致非绝热加热显著增强并在中高层形成深厚加热中心。上述过程通过提升水汽利用效率和对流组织化程度,在不利水汽条件下实现了热力增强,进而为“美莎克”近岸增强提供了热力条件。研究结果揭示了“美莎克”在不利水汽和切变条件下仍能近岸增强的物理图像,为北部湾台风强度预报提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Rapid intensification of nearshore tropical cyclones poses a formidable challenge to operational intensity forecasting. Typhoon Maysak (2610) underwent an unexpected intensification over the Beibu Gulf before landfall, subsequently causing severe wind and rainfall impacts across Guangxi, yet the underlying mechanisms remain to be elucidated. Using multi-source data, this study diagnoses the dynamic and thermodynamic processes governing the nearshore intensification of Maysak, focusing on the evolving roles of environmental conditions and inner-core processes. Results reveal that anomalously warm sea surface temperatures exceeding 29℃ and high ocean heat content over the Beibu Gulf provided a critical energy source for intensification, and the deceleration of Maysak near the coast further amplified this oceanic thermal forcing. Dynamically, the eastward expansion of the South Asian High easterly jet enhanced upper-level outflow while simultaneously intensifying deep-layer vertical wind shear, establishing a competing relationship. Nearshore convergence of the boundary layer flow sustained vorticity growth through stretching, dynamically offsetting the adverse effects of strong shear. Thermally, although large-scale moisture transport weakened due to moisture interception by a Bay of Bengal storm, nearshore convergence strengthened ascending motion, drawing deep convection toward the storm center. This reorganization triggered a marked surge in diabatic heating, with a deep heating maximum established in the mid-to-upper troposphere. These processes collectively enhanced moisture utilization efficiency and convective organization, enabling Maysak to achieve intensification despite diminishing external moisture supply. The findings establish a physical framework for understanding nearshore intensification under unfavorable moisture and shear conditions, offering valuable insights for operational intensity forecasting of typhoons in the Beibu Gulf region.

     

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