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气候变化背景下干旱区暴雨强度公式误差控制技术研究

Study on error control technique of rainstorm intensity formula in arid area under the background of climate change

  • 摘要: 频繁的极端降水事件使暴雨强度公式编制过程中的误差控制变得越来越困难。利用宁夏银川国家气象站1961-2016年分钟降水资料,采用指数、耿贝尔、P-Ⅲ等概率模型进行雨强-重现期的曲线拟合和最小二乘法、高斯牛顿法进行暴雨强度公式参数推求,编制银川市暴雨强度公式,探讨干旱区暴雨强度公式的误差控制和优化策略。结果表明:(1)干旱区强降水样本少、变率大,针对编制暴雨强度公式过程中曲线拟合和参数求解这两个重要步骤过程中误差难以控制的缺陷,设计了一种新的误差控制策略,将误差的两步控制改变为综合控制,从而可使公式推算过程的误差达到最小。(2)银川夏半年平均气温从20世纪90年代中后期开始明显升高,短历时(尤其是30~180 min)降水强度为一致增强趋势,且变率加大。(3)优选耿贝尔曲线拟合结合高斯牛顿法求解公式参数,作为银川市暴雨强度总(分)公式的组合计算方案,较好地编制了银川市新一代暴雨强度公式,为干旱区暴雨强度公式的编制提供了可供参考的思路。

     

    Abstract: Frequent extreme precipitation events make it more and more difficult to control the errors in rainstorm intensity formula. Based on minute precipitation data of national meteorological stations in Yinchuan from 1961 to 2016, using curve fitting in the form of Index, Gumbel to fit rainfall intensity-return period and P-Ⅲ least square, Gauss-Newton methods to carry out the calculation of rainstorm intensity formula parameters, we compiled rainstorm intensity formula in Yinchuan and discussed its error control in arid area and optimal strategy. The results show that:(1) the heavy rain in arid areas has less samples and large variability. According to the defects that error is difficult to control in the process of two important steps of the experience frequency curve fitting of rainstorm intensity formula and parameters solution, we design a new error control strategy to change the error of two step control to the comprehensive control, which can minimize the formula error. (2) The average temperature in Yinchuan in summer has increased significantly since the middle and late 1990s. The short-term rainfall intensity (especially 30-180 min) present a consistent increasing trend, and the change rate has increased. (3) As a combined calculation scheme of the rain intensity component and general formula for Yinchuan, we optimize the Gumbel distribution curve fitting together with Gaussian Newton method to solve formula, it has been well compiled the new generation rainstorm intensity formula for Yinchuan, which provides some ideas for the formulation of rainstorm intensity formula in arid area.

     

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