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刘丽丽, 李英华, 王雪莲, 林毅, 董琪如, 邱晓滨. 2024: 区域海气耦合模式对黄渤海周边近地层温湿预报的性能研究. 暴雨灾害, 43(1): 63-72. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-051
引用本文: 刘丽丽, 李英华, 王雪莲, 林毅, 董琪如, 邱晓滨. 2024: 区域海气耦合模式对黄渤海周边近地层温湿预报的性能研究. 暴雨灾害, 43(1): 63-72. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-051
LIU Lili, LI Yinghua, WANG Xuelian, LIN Yi, DONG Qiru, QIU Xiaobin. 2024: Study on the performance of the regional air-sea coupled model on forecast accuracy of near-surface temperature and humidity in the surrounding areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 43(1): 63-72. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-051
Citation: LIU Lili, LI Yinghua, WANG Xuelian, LIN Yi, DONG Qiru, QIU Xiaobin. 2024: Study on the performance of the regional air-sea coupled model on forecast accuracy of near-surface temperature and humidity in the surrounding areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 43(1): 63-72. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-051

区域海气耦合模式对黄渤海周边近地层温湿预报的性能研究

Study on the performance of the regional air-sea coupled model on forecast accuracy of near-surface temperature and humidity in the surrounding areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea

  • 摘要: 相对中国其他海域,三面环陆的黄渤海区域海洋与中纬度大气间的相互作用有其独特性,在该区域开展海气耦合模式对气象要素的影响研究十分必要。本文基于大气和海洋的全球预报和再分析资料,利用高分辨率区域海气耦合模式(简称耦合模式)和非耦合模式,开展数值模拟试验。并根据国家地面常规气象观测站和埕北石油A平台实况观测资料,对比分析了2020年6月两种模式对近地层大气温湿要素预报结果,并结合海温、海气热通量变化和风场调整情况,分析了海气双向耦合过程对近地层温湿要素预报影响的原因。结果表明:耦合模式对近地层的湿度要素预报改进较大,以增湿效应为主;海气双向耦合对温湿要素的影响范围可扩展至黄渤海周边省市全域,可提升耦合模式对黄渤海周边区域近地层湿度和白天温度的预报效果;湿度对海气双向耦合的响应速度明显快于温度,说明耦合模式先改进了近地层湿度预报效果;耦合模式海表向上的潜热通量增加是近地层温湿要素预报改进的主要原因。

     

    Abstract: Compared with other sea areas in China, the interaction between the Yellow and Bohai Sea surrounded by land on three sides and the mid latitude atmosphere has its uniqueness, and it is necessary to conduct research on the impact of air-sea coupled model on meteorological elements in this region. Based on the global forecasting and reanalysis data for the atmosphere and ocean, the numerical experiments are conducted using the high resolution regional air-sea coupled model (referred to as coupled model) and uncoupled model. By utilizing the actual observation data of the national surface conventional observation stations and the Chengbei Petroleum A platform in the inspection area, a comparative analysis was conducted on the prediction results of the near-surface atmospheric temperature and humidity elements in June 2020. In addition, according to the changes in sea surface temperature, air-sea heat flux, and wind field adjustments, the reasons for the impact of the air-sea bidirectional coupling process on the prediction of near-surface temperature and humidity factors were analyzed. The results show that the coupled model improves the forecasting of humidity element near-surface, with a predominantly humidifying effect. The impact area of bidirectional coupling between air and sea on temperature and humidity can extend to the entire area around the Yellow and Bohai Sea, thereby improving the prediction of near-surface temperature during the daytime and humidity elements of the coupled model in this area. The response of humidity to the air-sea bidirectional coupling is significantly faster than that of temperature, indicating that the regional air-sea coupling model first improves the forecast of near-surface humidity. The increase of latent heat flux over the sea surface after coupling is the main reason for the improvement in the forecast of temperature and humidity elements near the surface layer.

     

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