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项阳, 张庆奎. 2019: 1962—2016年安徽省阜阳市暴雨气候变化与对流条件的关系. 暴雨灾害, 38(3): 284-290. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.03.011
引用本文: 项阳, 张庆奎. 2019: 1962—2016年安徽省阜阳市暴雨气候变化与对流条件的关系. 暴雨灾害, 38(3): 284-290. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.03.011
XIANG Yang, ZHANG Qingkui. 2019: The relationship between climatic changes and convective conditions of heavy rain in Fuyang of Anhui Province from 1962 to 2016. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 38(3): 284-290. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.03.011
Citation: XIANG Yang, ZHANG Qingkui. 2019: The relationship between climatic changes and convective conditions of heavy rain in Fuyang of Anhui Province from 1962 to 2016. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 38(3): 284-290. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.03.011

1962—2016年安徽省阜阳市暴雨气候变化与对流条件的关系

The relationship between climatic changes and convective conditions of heavy rain in Fuyang of Anhui Province from 1962 to 2016

  • 摘要: 利用安徽省阜阳市6个国家级气象观测站1962-2016年日降水观测资料及NCEP/NCAR日平均再分析资料,统计分析了近55 a安徽省阜阳市暴雨气候变化及与对流条件的关系。结果表明:近55 a安徽省阜阳市暴雨呈现出明显的增加趋势,并在1989年前后产生突变,同时其也是年降水量增加的主要贡献者。安徽省阜阳市暴雨主要发生在春末至秋初的5-9月,集中发生在夏季的6-7月,夏季暴雨越多,暴雨集中指数越高。根据稳定度条件、水汽条件和抬升条件,分别选取了K指数、大气可降水量PW和850 hPa垂直速度ω850 hPa共计3个对流条件参数,利用阈值统计和常规的平均值统计,进一步研究了暴雨频次与3个对流条件参数的长期对应关系。通过对比分析,相较于平均值统计,无论是年代际及年际的对应或是暴雨频次异常年份的对应,阈值统计均具有较明显的优越性。阈值统计显示,近55 a 5-9月K指数、PWω850 hPa的年代际趋势及年际变化与暴雨频次的变化具有较好一致性,均呈现出明显的上升趋势;暴雨频次异常年份分析显示,偏多年与偏少年对流条件参数差异明显。因此高不稳定、高水汽含量和较好动力抬升的对流条件非常有利于暴雨增多,且随着年代的变化,各对流条件对暴雨变化趋势的影响有所不同。

     

    Abstract: Climatic characteristics and convective conditions of heavy rain were analyzed based on the daily rainfall data at 6 observation stations in Fuyang and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1962 to 2016. The results show that the heavy rain increased obviously in recent 55 years, and changed abruptly in 1989, which was also a major contributor to the increase in annual rainfall. Heavy rain occurred mainly from May to September, especially in June and July. The heavier the rain occurs in summer, the higher the heavy rain concentration index can be found. Three convective parameters including K index, precipitable water and vertical velocity at 850 hPa have been chosen based on the convection stability, wanted vapor condition and lifting condition. The threshold statistical method has been used to analyze the climatic trend and convective conditions. Compared to the climatic mean statistics, the threshold statistical method had obvious advantages in interdecadal and interannual timescale, or for abnormal years of heavy rain analysis. The threshold statistics showed that interdecadal and interannual variability of heavy rain had a good relationship with K index, precipitable water and vertical speed on 850 hPa that provide the favorable convective conditions for the heavy rain formation. However, the impacts of convective conditions on the trend of rainstorm were different from May to September during the recent 55 years.

     

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