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“海葵”(2311)残涡引发广州极端降水的特征分析

Analysis on the characteristics of extreme precipitation induced by Typhoon Haikui (2311) residual vortex in Guangzhou

  • 摘要: 2023年9月7—8日,受2 311号台风“海葵”残涡影响,广州出现了近10 a第三强的暴雨过程,期间累积雨量大、降水范围广、降水极端性强、持续时间长、夜雨明显。利用地面常规气象站观测、热带气旋最佳路径、雷达和ERA5再分析等多源资料,对本次过程的降水实况、形成极端降水的大尺度环流成因及造成夜雨明显的中尺度特征进行研究。结果表明:(1) 本次过程广州20 mm·h-1和50 mm·h-1以上的短时强降水持续时间分别长达13 h和9 h,最大小时雨强达到80 mm·h-1以上。较高的降水效率和较长的强降水持续时间造成极端降水的产生。(2) 弱引导气流导致“海葵”残涡移动缓慢,强盛的西南季风和偏东急流交汇并稳定维持、以及提供充沛的水汽,配合200 hPa南亚高压辐散抽吸作用,是此次极端降水过程有利的大尺度环流背景。(3) 极端降水的发生与大尺度环流场的异常及其造成的物理量异常密切相关。200 hPa辐散、925 hPa辐合和925 hPa水汽通量辐合在广州均具有显著的极端性,偏离气候平均态四倍标准差以上,假相当位温在广州存在中等强度的正异常中心,异常极端的动力抬升、水汽和热力条件共同导致了降水极端性的出现。(4) 广州低层急流的加强、中尺度能量锋区的触发、暖平流输送和边界层水汽辐合的显著增强是夜雨明显的重要诱因。对流单体后向传播形成列车效应,层积混合云降水长时间持续,低质心暖云降水特征显著,是引发极端降水的直接原因;高浓度中小雨滴是主要的云微物理特征。

     

    Abstract: Subject to the impact of Typhoon Haikui residual vortex, Guangzhou suffered the third strongest rainstorm in nearly 10 years from 7 to 8 September 2023, which has the characteristics of large total amount, wide coverage range, extreme rainfall intensity, long duration and obvious nocturnal precipitation. Based on multi-source data, the precipitation conditions, large-scale circulation causes of extreme precipitation and mesoscale characteristics of nocturnal precipitation are analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) During this process, short-term heavy precipitation with intensity over 20 mm·h-1 and 50 mm·h-1 in Guangzhou lasted for 13 h and 9 h respectively, and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity reached over 80 mm·h-1. The high precipitation efficiency and prolonged duration of intense precipitation lead to the occurrence of extreme precipitation. (2) The retention of Haikui residual vortex, the convergence and maintenance of strong monsoon and southeast jet which provided abundant water vapor, and the divergence caused by South Asia High, which constitutes the favorable large-scale circulation background for the extreme precipitation. (3) The occurrence of extreme precipitation is closely related to the anomaly of large-scale circulation and physical parameters. 200 hPa divergence, 925 hPa convergence and 925 hPa water vapor flux convergence all have significant extremes, generally deviating from the standard deviation of climatic state by four times. There exists a moderate-intensity positive anomaly center of pseudo-equivalent potential temperature in Guangzhou. The abnormal extreme dynamic, water vapor and thermal conditions lead to the occurrence of extreme precipitation. (4) The strengthening of southeast jet, the triggering of the mesoscale energy front, the enhancement of water vapor convergence and warm advection are important incentives for the night rain. It is generated by the backward propagation of convective cells formed train effect and long duration of mixed cloud precipitation, with significant low echo centroids and warm cloud precipitation characteristics. The high concentration of medium and small raindrops is the main cloud microphysical feature.

     

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